Gold (XAUUSD) at a new peak: the trend remains favourable

Gold (XAUUSD) prices jumped to 5,248 USD as the market continues to steadily buy safe-haven assets. Find more details in our analysis for 28 January 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices hit another high amid strong demand for safe-haven assets
• The market focus is on the Fed, US geopolitics, and pressure on the US dollar
• The technical picture for gold (XAUUSD) remains bullish
• XAUUSD forecast for 28 January 2026: 5,280

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose to 5,248 USD per ounce on Wednesday, reaching new all-time highs amid a sharp weakening of the US dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets.

The catalyst was rhetoric from US President Donald Trump. He stated that he is not concerned about the dollar falling to four-year lows. The market interpreted this as a signal that the administration is willing to tolerate a weaker currency to support exports.

The rally in precious metals is also being fuelled by heightened political uncertainty in Washington, including threats of new tariffs and criticism of the independence of the US Federal Reserve. Against this backdrop, investors are increasing defensive positions.

The market focus remains on the Fed decision, which will be announced today. The regulator is expected to keep rates unchanged, but markets will closely monitor comments regarding the timing of the next rate cut.

Additional support for gold comes from active purchases by central banks and steady inflows into ETFs. Since the beginning of the year, gold has gained around 20%, while silver has added nearly 60%.

The outlook for gold (XAUUSD) is positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a strong and sustainable uptrend. Since the beginning of January, prices have consistently posted higher highs and higher lows, confirming buyer dominance. After a brief consolidation in the 4,600–4,650 area, the market shifted into a momentum rally, which accelerated significantly in the second half of the month.

Quotes are confidently holding above the middle Bollinger Band and in recent sessions have been moving along the upper band. This indicates a strong bullish momentum and a trend expansion phase. Expanding Bollinger Bands further confirm rising volatility and the strength of the current move.

The 4,750–4,770 area, which previously acted as resistance, is now serving as support. The 4,980–5,000 zone became an intermediate base from which the market accelerated higher again. Candlestick dynamics remain predominantly bullish: long green candlesticks, short corrective phases, and quick buying of pullbacks. Selling attempts are limited to shallow retracements and do not lead to a structural breakdown. Despite signs of overheating, there are no clear reversal signals on the chart.

The technical picture reflects a phase of a strong trend rally. The baseline scenario suggests either short-term consolidation near current highs or continued growth after a brief pause. A significant deterioration of the structure would only be possible if prices return below the 5,000–4,980 zone.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,280 and 5,350
• Key support levels: 5,100 and 4,980

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

XAUUSD prices holding above the 5,100–5,105 zone confirm the stability of the upward structure on the H4 chart and the dominance of buyers. A consolidation above 5,280 would indicate a continuation of the momentum after a short pause near all-time highs.

The risk-to-reward ratio is above 1:3. Potential profit upon reaching the target is around 7,000–8,000 pips, while possible losses are limited to 2,000–2,500 pips.

• Buy Stop: 5,285 USD
• Take Profit: 5,350 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,100 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A move and consolidation below 5,100–5,080 would signal a deeper correction after an overheated rally. In this case, the market may enter a profit-taking phase with a move towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

• Sell Stop: 5,075 USD
• Take Profit: 5,000 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,155 USD

Risk factors

The main risks to the bullish scenario are a sharp strengthening of the US dollar, unexpected hawkish signals from the Fed, and large-scale profit-taking after reaching all-time highs. A return below 5,000–4,980 would be the first sign of weakening of the current uptrend on the H4 chart.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) continues its rally, supported by strong demand for safe-haven assets and elevated risks. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 28 January 2026, does not rule out growth towards 5,280.

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