Adrenaline for XAUUSD: ADP and PMI data could shake the market

Gold is forming a new upward wave ahead of US economic data releases, with XAUUSD prices testing the 5,075 USD level. Find more details in our analysis for 4 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 41 thousand, projected at 46 thousand
• US services PMI: previously at 52.5, projected at 52.5
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 February 2026: 5,330

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold continues its upward trajectory, with quotes hovering around 5,080 USD per ounce.

The ADP report is an early indicator reflecting changes in employment in the US nonfarm sector, based on a large sample of private companies. Released two days ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls data, it often triggers heightened market volatility. The US dollar reaction is typically straightforward: a stronger-than-expected reading supports the USD, while a weaker figure puts pressure on it.

The XAUUSD forecast for 4 February 2026 takes into account that US ADP nonfarm employment may rise to 46 thousand from the previous 41 thousand. While the projected increase is modest, it still points to some positive momentum in US employment.

The US services PMI is expected to remain flat at 52.2. If the actual PMI figure comes in below expectations, this could further weaken the US dollar and trigger additional upside in XAUUSD quotes.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, prices continue to develop an upward wave following the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD quotes have returned to the ascending channel, the upside target may be located around 5,330 USD.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis of XAUUSD also considers an alternative scenario, in which prices undergo a correction towards the 4,950 USD level before resuming growth.

The potential for continued upward momentum remains, and XAUUSD prices may move towards the next psychological level at 6,000 USD in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,330 and 5,562
• Key support levels: 4,950 and 4,500

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

After forming a low in the 4,440–4,450 zone, gold has entered a technical recovery phase. A consolidation above 5,150 will confirm upward momentum after the panic-driven sell-off and open the way for a move towards 5,330.

The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3.

• Buy Stop: 5,150 USD
• Take Profit: 5,330 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,870 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

The rebound may remain corrective. Renewed selling pressure and a breakout below the 4,450 zone would indicate a continuation of the downward structure and the risk of a retest of recent lows.

• Sell Stop: 4,440 USD
• Take Profit: 4,250 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,520 USD

Risk factors

Fundamentally, gold is supported by central bank demand, fiscal risks, and overall uncertainty. However, the technical picture following the breakdown of the uptrend points to heightened volatility and the risk of renewed selling. A weaker US dollar and rising geopolitical tensions could strengthen the XAUUSD recovery, while a return of hawkish monetary expectations would once again tilt the balance towards a bearish scenario.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to recover lost ground amid US economic data releases. Technical analysis of XAUUSD suggests potential growth towards the 5,330 USD area.

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