Gold or the dollar: what will influence XAUUSD prices – inflation or rising unemployment

Gold (XAUUSD) is forming another upward wave ahead of the release of US statistics. Quotes are testing the 4,870 USD per ounce level. Find more details in our analysis for 6 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The University of Michigan US inflation expectations: previously at 4.0%, projected at 4.0%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 209 thousand, currently at 231 thousand
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 February 2026: 5,075

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold is forming another upward wave, with prices currently trading near the 4,870 USD per ounce level.

At the start of the US trading session, the University of Michigan will release US inflation expectations data. The previous value stood at 4.0%, and the forecast for 6 February 2026 suggests inflation may remain at the same level. Despite the stabilisation of inflation expectations, this indicator can still affect XAUUSD prices. It should be noted that this is only a forecast, and the actual figure may differ significantly, potentially triggering further USD weakness.

US initial jobless claims reflect the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The XAUUSD forecast for 6 February 2026 takes into account that the actual number of jobless claims rose to 231 thousand from the previous 209 thousand. Rising unemployment in the US, combined with other economic indicators, continues to put additional pressure on the USD, despite the dollar’s attempts to regain its position against other currencies and precious metals.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, prices may develop an upward wave as the pattern plays out. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, the upside target could be the 5,075 USD level.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis of XAUUSD also considers an alternative scenario, in which prices undergo a correction towards the 4,725 USD level before resuming growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,075 and 5,480
• Key support levels: 4,725 and 4,500

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Limit)

A consolidation of XAUUSD quotes above the 5,075 level will open the potential for another upward wave, with the next resistance level at 5,480 as the target.

The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:4.

• Take Profit: 5,480 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,980 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,725 support level will signal the cancellation of the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a deeper correction.

• Take Profit: 4,500 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,800 USD

Risk factors

The XAUUSD upward movement may be limited by increasingly hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and continued appreciation of the US dollar, which would put pressure on gold prices. An additional risk remains the failure of XAUUSD to consolidate above the 5,075 level, which would keep prices in a correction phase and increase the likelihood of a renewed decline.

Summary

Rising unemployment in the US contributes to further USD weakness, while XAUUSD quotes are forming another upward wave and heading towards the 5,075 USD level.

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