Gold (XAUUSD) fell sharply without a clear trigger: the week may close in negative territory

Gold (XAUUSD) prices returned to 4,960 USD after yesterday’s sharp drop. Markets appear to need liquidity again. Find more details in our analysis for 13 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The sell-off in gold (XAUUSD) occurred without a clear trigger
• Markets may have needed liquidity to react more actively to today’s data
• XAUUSD forecast for 13 February 2026: 4,950 or 5,050

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rebounded to 4,960 USD per ounce on Friday after declining more than 3% in the previous session. The market remains extremely volatile.

Thursday’s decline occurred amid a broad sell-off in multiple asset classes, with investors reducing positions in precious metals to free up liquidity. There was no obvious trigger, but the simultaneous drop in equities and cryptocurrencies suggests a shift towards a risk-off environment, likely amplified by algorithmic trading.

The focus is now on US inflation data due later today. The release may influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. Following strong labour market data, the market has already shifted expectations for the first rate cut from June to July.

At the same time, gold’s fundamental support remains intact. Concerns over currency depreciation, steady demand from central banks, and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to limit the depth of the correction. Nevertheless, the metal may still post a moderate weekly decline.

The outlook for gold (XAUUSD) is cautious.

Technical outlook

After January’s surge towards 5,500+, gold (XAUUSD) entered a phase of sharp correction and high volatility. The decline was accompanied by widening Bollinger Bands and long candlestick wicks, reflecting active position redistribution.

Prices have now stabilised within the 4,950–5,050 range and are trading slightly below the middle Bollinger Band. The bands are gradually narrowing, signalling declining volatility and the formation of a local range.

The structure of recent sessions is sideways: attempts to move above 5,070–5,100 encounter selling pressure, while the 4,800–4,900 zone continues to act as support. As long as prices hold above 4,900, the short-term outlook remains neutral with a consolidation bias.

Overall, the market has exited the panic phase and entered a stage of accumulation. A sustained bullish momentum would require a consolidation above 5,100–5,150. A return below 4,900 would increase the risk of another downward wave.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: uptrend, consolidation phase
• Key resistance levels: 5,100 and 5,150
• Key support levels: 4,900 and 4,800

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 5,110 would confirm a breakout from the local 4,950–5,050 range and create conditions for renewed upside momentum after the redistribution phase, with the nearest target at 5,150.

The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:2 (risk of 60 USD and potential gain of 120 USD).

• Buy Stop: 5,110 USD
• Take Profit: 5,150 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,050 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below 4,900 would increase selling pressure and open the way towards a test of the 4,800 level as the corrective wave continues.

• Sell Stop: 4,890 USD
• Take Profit: 4,800 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,950 USD

The risk-to-reward ratio in the alternative scenario is approximately 1:1.5 (risk of 60 USD and potential gain of 90 USD).

Risk factors

The main risk to a recovery is the inability to consolidate above 5,100–5,150, a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, and further strengthening of the US dollar. These factors could push XAUUSD quotes back to test the lower boundary of the range.

Summary

Gold has recovered after yesterday’s sell-off, although risks remain. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 13 February 2026, suggests consolidation within the 4,950–5,050 range.

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