Gold (XAUUSD) in correction, but poised for surge

The US is observing a public holiday, and against this backdrop, gold may continue to strengthen, with XAUUSD prices currently at 4,987 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 16 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Today is a public holiday in the US known as Presidents’ Day
• Markets are awaiting continued US–Iran nuclear talks
• Easing US inflation has strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut
• XAUUSD forecast for 16 February 2026: 5,280

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold continues a corrective wave, currently trading around 4,987 USD per ounce.

Factors influencing XAUUSD price movements today:

• A slowdown in US inflation has strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026. If the US CPI continues to decline, this may push XAUUSD prices higher
• Despite positive US employment data, the market remains sensitive to rising unemployment and economic forecasts. If upcoming jobless claims reports come in worse than expected, this may weaken the dollar and support gold
• Tensions in the Middle East and other global risks continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. An escalation of these risks may push gold to new price highs
• Tomorrow, 17 February, US–Iran nuclear negotiations resume. Any negative news from Oman could immediately revive demand for safe-haven assets

Thus, XAUUSD quotes remain dependent on USD dynamics, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and may continue their upward trajectory following the pattern’s signal. Since quotes remain within an ascending channel, the upside target may be 5,280 USD.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers an alternative scenario involving a correction towards 4,885 USD before further growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward, consolidation phase
• Key resistance levels: 5,280 and 5,561
• Key support levels: 4,885 and 4,772

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 5,110 would confirm a breakout from the local 4,950–5,050 range and create conditions for a continued upward movement, with the nearest target at 5,280.

The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2.

• Buy Stop: 5,110 USD
• Take Profit: 5,280 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,050 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below 4,900 would increase selling pressure and open the way towards 4,800 as the corrective wave continues.

• Sell Stop: 4,890 USD
• Take Profit: 4,772 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,950 USD

Risk factors

The main risk to a recovery is the failure to consolidate above 5,100–5,150, a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, and further strengthening of the US dollar. These factors could push XAUUSD quotes back to test the lower boundary of the range.

Summary

Gold is awaiting positive growth catalysts. Technical analysis of XAUUSD suggests a move towards 5,280 after the correction.

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