Gold awaits FOMC: Fed minutes may reshape XAUUSD trajectory

After a corrective pullback, XAUUSD prices are attempting to recover lost ground, currently trading at 4,930 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 18 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• FOMC minutes will be published today
• XAUUSD prices are on the rise
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 February 2026: 5,100

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold is forming an upward wave following a correction, currently trading near 4,930 USD per ounce.

The XAUUSD outlook for 18 February 2026 takes into account the release of the FOMC minutes. The document will provide detailed insight into discussions among FOMC members regarding the current economic situation, inflation risks, and possible future monetary policy steps.

What to expect from the publication:

• In January, the Federal Reserve unanimously kept the interest rate at 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive cuts. The key question for the market is how dovish or hawkish future Fed policy will be
• Any hints that the Fed expects inflation to accelerate due to Trump’s tariff policy (following the Supreme Court decision on 20 February) may be interpreted as a bearish signal for risk assets
• Markets are also focused on whether further rate cuts were discussed. Currently, the market is pricing in two to three rate cuts this year
• If the minutes confirm a June rate cut, the dollar reaction may be limited. However, any hint of an earlier move in May or a delay to July could trigger heightened volatility in XAUUSD quotes

It is important to note that FOMC minutes reflect past discussions. On Friday, fresh PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data will be released. Markets will look for clues in the minutes about how the Federal Reserve may react to potentially soft PCE data.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and may continue an upward wave in line with the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within the ascending channel, the upside target could be 5,100 USD.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis also considers an alternative scenario involving a correction towards 4,840 USD before renewed growth.

XAUUSD prices retain the potential for further upside and may head towards the next psychological level of 6,000 USD in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,100 and 5,265
• Key support levels: 4,840 and 4,665

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 5,100 would indicate the end of the consolidation phase and create conditions for opening long positions. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3.

• Buy Stop: 5,100 USD
• Take Profit: 5,265 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,050 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below the key support level at 4,840 would strengthen bearish pressure and signal continued downward momentum towards 4,665.

• Sell Stop: 4,840 USD
• Take Profit: 4,665 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,890 USD

Risk factors

The main risk factors for the upside XAUUSD scenario remain persistent selling pressure and the possibility of the US dollar strengthening amid unexpectedly hawkish US macroeconomic data. Additionally, increased geopolitical stability may affect gold performance by reducing demand for safe-haven assets.

Summary

The release of the FOMC minutes may significantly impact XAUUSD performance and trigger increased volatility. Technical analysis suggests potential growth towards the 5,100 USD resistance level.

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