Gold (XAUUSD) in a mild correction, but the overall backdrop remains positive

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have pulled back to 5,190 USD, with geopolitics and risk factors remaining in focus. Find more details in our analysis for 24 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) underwent a correction after four consecutive days of gains
• The market is concerned about rising geopolitical uncertainty
• XAUUSD forecast for 24 February 2026: 5,200

Fundamental analysis

On Tuesday, gold (XAUUSD) slipped below 5,190 USD per ounce after four days of gains. Investors are assessing renewed tariff risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The Trump administration is seeking to reinstate a global tariff program following last week’s Supreme Court ruling that overturned a significant portion of the duties introduced last year. A new universal 10% tariff has already been announced and took effect on Tuesday. Trump also threatened to raise it to 15%.

On Monday, the US president warned of tougher measures against countries that ‘play games’ with existing trade agreements.

Geopolitically, attention is focused on renewed US-Iran talks scheduled for Thursday. Trump stated he prefers a diplomatic solution but warned of serious consequences if the nuclear deal fails.

The gold (XAUUSD) outlook is mixed.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) is recovering after declining to the 4,900–4,950 area. Prices climbed above 4,988 and continued their upward trajectory towards the 5,255 resistance level. Currently, quotes are trading around 5,185–5,190, slightly retreating from the upper boundary.

The upward move was accompanied by widening Bollinger Bands, indicating increased volatility, with prices now holding above the indicator’s midline.

The nearest resistance level stands at 5,255, and the support level is located at 4,988, with the next mark around 4,900.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,255 and 5,300
• Key support levels: 4,988 and 4,900

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 5,255 would confirm renewed upward momentum after the correction from 5,190 and create conditions for a move towards 5,300. The risk-to-reward ratio is about 1:0.8, with a potential gain of 45 pips against a risk of 55 pips.

• Buy Stop: 5,255 USD
• Take Profit: 5,300 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,200 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 4,988 would increase pressure and open the way towards the 4,900 zone. The risk-to-reward ratio is about 1:1.7, with a potential gain of 88 pips against a risk of 52 pips.

• Sell Stop: 4,988 USD
• Take Profit: 4,900 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,040 USD

Risk factors

Risks to further gold growth include strong US macroeconomic data and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, which could support the dollar. Easing geopolitical tensions around Iran could add to pressure on gold prices. At the same time, expanding tariff measures and uncertainty continue to support demand for safe-haven assets.

Summary

Gold prices are edging lower after four days of gains. The XAUUSD forecast for 24 February 2026 does not rule out a return above 5,200.

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