Gold (XAUUSD) enters a new growth phase: global risks support demand

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 5,180 USD, with the focus remaining on the risk premium and Federal Reserve rate expectations. Find more details in our analysis for 25 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are rising amid persistent trade and geopolitical risks
• Signals about the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut are limiting gold’s upside
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 February 2026: 5,200 and 5,255

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday, gold (XAUUSD) climbed to 5,180 USD per ounce, partially recovering losses from the previous session. Prices are supported by ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty.

A new universal US tariff of 10% came into effect on Tuesday, with the Trump administration pushing to raise it to 15%. Earlier, Trump warned that countries that ‘play games’ with existing trade agreements could face tougher measures.

Investors are also monitoring the resumption of nuclear talks between the US and Iran, scheduled for Thursday. On Tuesday, Iran stated it was ready to do ‘whatever is necessary’ to reach an agreement with Washington.

However, gold’s gains are being restrained by reduced expectations of imminent Federal Reserve policy easing. Fed official Susan Collins noted that under current conditions, it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for some time, citing the resilience of the labour market and persistent inflation risks.

The outlook for gold (XAUUSD) is favourable.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) rebounded from the 4,900–4,950 area and formed a steady upward impulse. The rally accelerated and pushed prices towards the 5,255 resistance level – the current local high.

Quotes are now trading in the 5,130–5,200 range, consolidating below 5,255. Attempts to secure a breakout above 5,200 are underway, but a confident breakout has yet to occur. Volatility has started to decline after the impulse move. Bollinger Bands widened during the rally and are now gradually narrowing, indicating a phase of accumulation.

Prices remain above the indicator’s midline, keeping the short-term bias moderately bullish. The nearest key resistance level stands at 5,255, while the support level is located at 4,988, followed by 4,900.

Overall, the structure reflects an uptrend, but the market has entered a consolidation phase under strong resistance. A breakout above 5,255 would reinforce upward momentum, while a rebound could send prices back towards the 5,000 area.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,255 and 5,300
• Key support levels: 4,988 and 4,900

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 5,255 would confirm renewed upward momentum after the consolidation phase below resistance and create conditions for a move towards 5,300. The risk-to-reward ratio is about 1:0.8, with a potential profit of 45 pips against a risk of 55 pips.

• Buy Stop: 5,255 USD
• Take Profit: 5,300 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,200 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 4,988 would add to corrective pressure and open the way towards 4,900. The risk-to-reward ratio is about 1:1.7, with a potential profit of 88 pips against a risk of 52 pips.

• Sell Stop: 4,988 USD
• Take Profit: 4,900 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,040 USD

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario include strong US macroeconomic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, which could strengthen the dollar. Trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks surrounding US-Iran negotiations continue to bolster gold prices.

Summary

Gold is rising on the back of geopolitical and trade uncertainty. The XAUUSD forecast for 25 February 2026 suggests another test of 5,200 and a likely move towards the 5,255 resistance level.

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