XAUUSD approaches a Triangle breakout

XAUUSD maintains its upward momentum amid geopolitical uncertainty and strengthening technical signals supporting further growth, with prices currently at 5,192 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 27 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The range on lower timeframes is narrowing, and the market is preparing for an impulsive breakout and rising volatility
• The US and Iran reported progress in Geneva talks, but no breakthrough was achieved
• Risks of escalation remain amid the US military build-up
• XAUUSD forecast for 27 February 2026: 5,340

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising for the third consecutive trading session. Buyers are pushing prices to test the key resistance level near 5,240 USD and increasing pressure on this level. On lower timeframes, the range of fluctuations is noticeably narrowing. Volatility is declining, which often precedes an impulsive breakout from consolidation. The market is building potential for a sharp move if the resistance level is breached.

Demand for gold remains strong as investors assess the progress of US-Iran nuclear negotiations. The parties reported progress during talks in Geneva mediated by Oman. However, despite hours of discussions, no breakthrough was achieved that would fully eliminate the risk of potential US strikes amid the build-up of military presence. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand.

US data adds moderate stability to the market. Initial jobless claims edged higher, but the data suggests that the unemployment rate in February likely remained stable. The resilience of the labour market limits pressure on the US dollar but does not reduce interest in gold.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are testing the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern. Buyers have consistently held prices above the EMA-285, reflecting increasing bullish pressure and sustained buying interest.

Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests continued growth towards 5,340 USD. The technical picture remains in favour of buyers. The Stochastic Oscillator confirms the bullish scenario, with its signal lines forming a bullish crossover and indicating sustained momentum. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern and consolidation above 5,205 USD will confirm the main scenario. In this case, the market will receive an additional signal for sustained growth, with the potential to move to the height of the formed pattern.

The alternative scenario will unfold if prices break below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern and consolidate below 5,145 USD. This would signal weakening bullish positions and open the door for a downward correction.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,205 and 5,295
• Key support levels: 5,155 and 5,025

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern with consolidation above 5,205 will create conditions for opening long positions. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2. The potential profit at the take-profit level is 13,500 pips, while possible losses are limited to 5,000 pips.

• Take Profit: 5,340 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,155 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 5,145 would indicate a move beyond the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern, increasing the risk of a bearish correction.

• Take Profit: 5,025 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,165 USD

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario include easing geopolitical tensions and the conclusion of specific agreements between the US and Iran, which would reduce safe-haven demand. Additional pressure may come from a stronger US dollar amid solid macroeconomic data or hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding prolonged high interest rates.

Summary

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, resilience in the US labour market, and a narrowing price range creates favourable conditions for a breakout above 5,240 USD and a strengthening upward momentum. The XAUUSD forecast indicates a high probability of continued growth if prices consolidate above 5,205 USD, targeting 5,340 USD, while a breakout below 5,145 USD would confirm weakening bullish momentum and signal the start of a downward correction.

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