Gold (XAUUSD) hedges risk: Middle East tensions alarm the market

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have climbed to 5,350 USD as investors are once again seeking safe-haven assets. Find more details in our analysis for 2 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes hit a new one-month high
• Demand for safe-haven assets is rising amid escalating conflict in the Middle East
• XAUUSD forecast for 2 March 2026: 5,390

Fundamental analysis

On Monday, gold (XAUUSD) gained more than 1% and rose above 5,350 USD per ounce, the highest level in over a month.

Demand for safe-haven assets intensified after joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, resulting in the death of the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The conflict has already significantly disrupted maritime traffic in the oil-rich Persian Gulf region.

In response, Iran launched strikes against US-linked facilities in several countries across the region, including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria. This escalation has heightened fears of a broader conflict and supported further gains in gold prices.

The gold (XAUUSD) outlook is favourable.

Technical outlook

The XAUUSD H4 chart shows a confident recovery after a decline to the 4,850–4,900 area. From this zone, a consistent upward momentum formed, with a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Prices broke above 5,130, then accelerated past 5,235 and advanced towards 5,360+. Currently, quotes are trading near 5,360–5,370, close to the 5,390–5,400 resistance zone.

Bollinger Bands are significantly expanded, signalling strong momentum and elevated volatility. Prices are holding near the upper boundary, indicating short-term overheating; however, this is acceptable within a strong trend.

The nearest support lies in the 5,235–5,250 zone, with a more significant support level around 5,130. The overall structure remains bullish; however, after the sharp rally, a pause or short-term pullback is possible before another attempt to test 5,390–5,400.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,390 and 5,450
• Key support levels: 5,235 and 5,130

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A move above 5,390 would confirm continued upward momentum after the rally from 4,900 and open the way towards 5,450. The risk-to-reward ratio is approximately 1:2, with potential upside of around 60 pips and a risk of approximately 30 pips.

• Take Profit: 5,450 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,360 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 5,235 would increase the risk of a short-term correction after the sharp rally and open the way towards 5,130.

• Take Profit: 5,130 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,285 USD

Risk factors

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and strong demand for safe-haven assets continue to support XAUUSD quotes. Risks to further growth include de-escalation of the conflict or a stronger US dollar driven by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and solid US macroeconomic data.

Summary

Gold prices have risen sharply. The XAUUSD forecast for 2 March 2026 does not rule out further gains towards 5,390.

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