Gold searches for a new price record

Gold continues to strengthen amid global developments, with XAUUSD quotes trading near 5,312 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 3 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US inflation may remain under pressure
• Tensions in several regions of the world are supporting demand for gold
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 3 March 2026: 5,560

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that after a strong rally, gold is forming a corrective wave, with quotes currently trading around 5,300 USD per ounce.

Key factors influencing XAUUSD price performance:

• Inflation data: US inflation is expected to remain under pressure, reinforcing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset
• US economic risks: markets remain concerned about slowing economic growth, which enhances gold’s appeal as a defensive investment
• Geopolitical developments: tensions in certain regions continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset
• Financial reports: markets are awaiting new US economic data, which could trigger short-term fluctuations in XAUUSD prices. Weak macroeconomic figures may further pressure the USD

In the near term, gold may strengthen further, especially if economic and political risks continue to weigh on traditional currencies and financial markets.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD quotes formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, prices continue their corrective wave and may pull back in the short term as the pattern plays out. Since XAUUSD remains within an ascending channel, the first correction target lies at 5,230 USD.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers an alternative scenario, where prices rise towards 5,560 USD without testing the support level.

The potential for the uptrend to continue remains strong. In the medium term, XAUUSD prices may target the next psychological level at 6,000 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,560 and 6,000
• Key support levels: 5,230 and 5,095

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Limit)

A pullback towards the 5,230 support level may complete the correction and open the way to 5,560. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:5.

• Buy Limit: 5,230 USD
• Take Profit: 5,560 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,200 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 5,200 would increase the risks of a deeper short-term correction after the sharp rally and open the way towards 5,130.

• Take Profit: 4,800 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,285 USD

Risk factors

Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reduced demand for safe-haven assets remain key risks for XAUUSD. Strengthening of the US dollar amid hawkish Fed rhetoric or strong US macroeconomic data could also limit gold’s upside potential.

Summary

Geopolitical risks continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset. Technical analysis suggests that after a correction phase, XAUUSD may advance towards 5,560 USD.

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