Escalation of the Middle East conflict supports demand for gold (XAUUSD)

XAUUSD prices are recovering after a sharp correction, reflecting a balance between pressure from a strong US dollar and support from geopolitical risks. The current quote is 5,157 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 4 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Investors are focused on developments in the Middle East
• The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has supported demand for safe-haven assets, including gold
• Structural factors continue to drive demand for the precious metal
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 March 2026: 5,390

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising after rebounding from the 5,095 USD support level. The day before, gold lost more than 4.6%, marking one of the sharpest intraday declines in recent times.

On Tuesday, precious metals came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened amid growing concerns that rising energy prices would intensify inflationary pressure in the US. Investors revised expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, speculating that the regulator may maintain tight financial conditions for longer. Higher oil prices, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions around Iran, increased inflation risks and complicated the outlook for monetary easing. As a result, market participants reduced gold positions, triggering large-scale profit-taking.

However, sentiment partially stabilised today. Investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump warned about the risks of a new Iranian leadership that could prove just as problematic as the previous regime. These statements increased uncertainty and heightened nervousness in global markets. The escalation of the Middle East conflict supported demand for safe-haven assets, including gold. At the same time, structural factors remain in favour of the precious metal: geopolitical uncertainty, unpredictability of economic policy, and the need for portfolio diversification.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are rising after rebounding from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. Despite the corrective movement, buyers remain in control and maintain the uptrend structure.

Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests continued growth towards 5,390 USD. The technical picture remains bullish. The Stochastic Oscillator confirms growing buying pressure. The oscillator values pulled back to the support line and formed a bullish crossover, indicating potential for renewed upward momentum. A confident breakout above the upper boundary of the corrective channel with consolidation above 5,185 USD will confirm the main scenario. In this case, the market will receive an additional signal in favour of sustained upward movement.

The alternative scenario suggests a breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel and a drop below 4,975 USD. Such a move would signal weakening buyer positions and create risks of a deeper correction.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,205 and 5,280
• Key support levels: 5,065 and 5,390

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel with consolidation above 5,175 would create conditions for opening long positions. The potential profit at the take-profit level is 21,500 pips, while possible losses are limited to 4,000 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:5.

• Take Profit: 5,390 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,135 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel with consolidation under 4,975 would increase the risks of a bearish correction.

• Take Profit: 4,835 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,075 USD

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario include further strengthening of the US dollar and increased expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy amid persistent inflationary pressure. Additional pressure on XAUUSD quotes may come from de-escalation in the Middle East, which would reduce demand for safe-haven assets and trigger profit-taking in long positions.

Summary

Despite the recent correction, the fundamental backdrop continues to support gold, and the rebound from the key support level indicates sustained buyer interest. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests continued upward momentum with a potential test of 5,345 USD, provided prices remain above the lower boundary of the medium-term bullish channel.

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