Gold (XAUUSD) in positive territory: risks remain high

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 5,186 USD, as the market continues to seek safe-haven assets. Discover more in our analysis for 5 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices are resuming growth amid demand for safe-haven assets
• The market requires risk hedging due to the conflict in the Middle East
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 March 2026: 5,200

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose to 5,186 USD per ounce on Thursday, extending the previous session’s gains. Investors are increasing demand for safe-haven assets amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

The confrontation has entered its sixth day. The US and Israel are striking targets on Iranian territory, while Tehran is responding with missile attacks on several neighbouring countries, including energy infrastructure facilities.

US President Donald Trump expressed support for the military operation. Representatives of the US authorities reported that an Iranian military vessel had been sunk in international waters.

At the same time, Iranian authorities denied reports that the country’s Ministry of Intelligence had attempted to contact Washington for negotiations, calling such statements unreliable.

An additional source of uncertainty came from a statement by the US Treasury Secretary about introducing a global tariff of 15%, which will take effect this week and may be revised in five months.

Rising oil and gas prices have once again intensified inflation risks. Against this backdrop, the market is revising monetary policy expectations: the first Federal Reserve rate cut is now expected no earlier than September, although two rate cuts are still projected for 2026.

The outlook for gold (XAUUSD) is positive.

Technical outlook

On the XAUUSD H4 chart, after a period of sideways consolidation in the first half of February, prices formed an upward reversal. A steady upward movement began from the low in the 4,870–4,900 area, accompanied by expanding Bollinger Bands and rising volatility.

In the second half of February, quotes formed a series of higher lows and higher highs. Momentum strengthened at the end of the month as prices accelerated and reached a local peak in the 5,400–5,420 area.

After reaching the peak, gold entered a sharp correction. A strong bearish candlestick led to a rapid decline towards the 5,000 area, after which the market stabilised and began to partially recover.

Currently, gold is trading around 5,180–5,200, with prices in a phase of short-term consolidation after a sharp move. Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating declining volatility and the formation of a new range. The nearest resistance level lies near 5,400, while the key support level is located around 5,000.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 5,200 and 5,400
• Key support levels: 5,050 and 5,000

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 5,200 would confirm renewed upward momentum after the short-term consolidation phase. In this case, demand for safe-haven assets may increase, opening the door to a move towards the 5,400 area. The potential profit at the take-profit level is about 200 pips, while possible losses are limited to approximately 60–70 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3.

• Take Profit: 5,400
• Stop Loss: 5,130

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 5,050 support level would increase the risk of a deeper correction after the previous rally and may lead to a test of the key support level near 5,000.

• Take Profit: 5,000
• Stop Loss: 5,110

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario include further strengthening of the US dollar and rising expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy amid inflation risks. Additional pressure on gold may come from the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict, which would reduce demand for safe-haven assets and trigger profit-taking.

Summary

Gold prices are rising, driven by increasing demand for safe-haven assets. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 5 March 2026, does not rule out growth towards the 5,200 level.

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