US employment data may change the XAUUSD rate

US employment statistics may trigger growth in XAUUSD prices, which are currently standing at 5,117 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 6 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 130 thousand, projected at 58 thousand
• US unemployment rate for February: previously at 4.3%, projected at 4.3%
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 March 2026: 5,388

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast suggests that after the recent rise, gold is forming a corrective wave. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering around 5,300 USD per ounce.

US Nonfarm Payrolls in the previous period pleased investors, coming in above expectations at 130 thousand. The current forecast suggests 58 thousand. If the actual figure matches expectations, the USD may once again lose support, which could push XAUUSD quotes higher. The Nonfarm Payrolls release almost always causes heightened market activity and can either support the US dollar or cause it to lose ground.

The US unemployment rate shows the percentage of people who are actively seeking work and ready to start immediately. The actual data reflects the number of unemployed relative to the overall employed population. Fundamental analysis for 6 March 2026 factors in that the US unemployment rate may remain unchanged at 4.3%, although the actual data may differ from the forecast, which could affect XAUUSD.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and now continue their upward trajectory. In the near term, as the pattern plays out, quotes may extend the uptrend. Since XAUUSD remains within an ascending channel, the first upside target could be 5,388 USD.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis for XAUUSD also considers an alternative scenario that includes a pullback to 4,980 USD before the next rise.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,388 and 5,560
• Key support levels: 4,980 and 4,780

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 5,190 would confirm renewed bullish momentum after the correction. In this case, demand for safe-haven assets may strengthen, opening the door to a move towards 5,388. The potential profit at the take-profit level is about 198 pips, while potential losses are capped at 50 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3.

• Take Profit: 5,388
• Stop Loss: 5,140

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,980 support level would increase the risk of a deeper correction after the rally and may lead to a test of the key support area near 4,780.

• Take Profit: 4,780
• Stop Loss: 5,020

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario include further strengthening of the US dollar and rising expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance amid inflation risks. Additional pressure on gold could come from the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict, which would dampen demand for safe-haven assets and lead to profit-taking.

Summary

US employment statistics may once again negatively impact the USD. From a technical perspective, XAUUSD quotes are expected to rise towards 5,388 USD after the correction.

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