Gold in positive territory: inflation and geopolitics are pushing XAUUSD towards new highs

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to recover and is heading towards its early March highs, with XAUUSD prices currently at 5,200 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 11 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 2.4%, projected at 2.5%
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 March 2026: 5,388

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold maintains its upward momentum, with quotes currently trading around 5,200 USD per ounce.

The Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping to assess consumer trends and economic stagnation. A lower-than-expected figure typically has a negative impact on the national currency.

The XAUUSD forecast for 11 March 2026 suggests the CPI will be higher than the previous reading of 2.4%, with the figure expected to be around 2.5%. Today’s fundamental analysis for XAUUSD indicates the CPI could rise compared to the previous period and positively impact the US dollar.

Amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, geopolitical instability, and expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy actions, gold continues to hold its ground and is gradually moving towards all-time highs.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and now continue an upward wave. In the near term, as the pattern plays out, quotes may extend the uptrend. Since XAUUSD remains within an ascending channel, the first upside target remains 5,388 USD.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis for XAUUSD also considers an alternative scenario that includes a pullback to 5,070 USD before the next move higher.

The potential for the uptrend to continue remains in place, and XAUUSD may head towards the next psychological level of 5,600 USD in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: uptrend
• Key resistance levels: 5,388 and 5,420
• Key support levels: 5,070 and 4,860

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 5,235 would confirm the end of the correction and a resumption of the upward wave. In this case, gold may move towards 5,388 and then 5,420, where the recent high is located.

• Take Profit: 5,388
• Stop Loss: 5,195

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 5,070 support level would increase selling pressure and signal a deeper correction after the prior advance. In this case, the market may test the key support area around 4,860.

• Take Profit: 4,860
• Stop Loss: 5,100

Risk factors

Key risks to further gold gains include a stronger US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following statements about a possible end to the conflict. US inflation data (CPI and PCE) will further impact XAUUSD this week, potentially shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy.

Summary

Despite geopolitical conflicts, gold remains an attractive instrument for preserving capital. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests potential upside towards the 5,388 USD level.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.