XAUUSD remains under pressure after the release of US inflation data

XAUUSD is trading cautiously as investors assess inflation risks and the outlook for US monetary policy, with prices currently at 5,168 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 12 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• A stronger US dollar and higher US Treasury yields are adding to pressure on gold
• US inflation remained at January levels and matched analysts’ forecasts
• The current rate of consumer price growth is the lowest since May last year
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 March 2026: 5,485

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are edging lower for the second consecutive trading session. Sellers continue to defend the 5,205 USD level, preventing prices from consolidating above this resistance level. The nearest key support is located around 5,085 USD.

Additional pressure on gold comes from higher oil prices, which have lifted global inflation expectations. Market participants have begun to reassess the prospects for monetary easing by major central banks, reducing the likelihood of earlier interest rate cuts.

Gold is also facing headwinds from a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Elevated inflation risks are lowering expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve, and current market pricing suggests only one rate cut closer to the end of this year.

According to the US Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in February. The reading was unchanged from January and matched the average analyst forecast. At the same time, the current inflation rate remains the lowest since May last year.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a correction within an ascending channel. Buyers are holding the 5,115 USD support level, which maintains bullish pressure and limits a deeper bearish correction. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests an attempt to recover and form new momentum towards 5,485 USD.

The technical picture is gradually shifting in favour of buyers, as prices continue to hold above key support levels. The Stochastic Oscillator signals increasing bullish pressure: the oscillator reached its support line and formed a bullish crossover, indicating a higher probability of the uptrend resuming. A confident breakout above the upper boundary of the descending correction channel, with prices consolidating above 5,240 USD, will further confirm the baseline scenario. Such a signal would indicate stronger buying activity and open the way for further gains.

An alternative scenario suggests a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and consolidation below 5,065 USD. This outcome would signal weakening buying pressure and raise the probability of a new move lower.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: uptrend
• Key resistance levels: 5,235 and 5,375
• Key support levels: 5,115 and 4,985

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 5,240 USD would confirm the completion of the correction via a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a resumption of the bullish wave, with upside potential towards 5,485 USD. The potential profit at the first take-profit target is about 24,500 pips, while potential losses are capped at about 8,500 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2.

• Take Profit: 5,485
• Stop Loss: 5,155

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, with prices consolidating below 5,065, would increase selling pressure and signal a deeper bearish correction.

• Take Profit: 4,865
• Stop Loss: 5,105

Risk factors

The risk to the bullish scenario will be further strengthening of the US dollar and continued gains in US Treasury yields, which could increase pressure on gold and trigger heavier selling. An additional threat would be a breakout below the 5,115 USD support level, followed by a consolidation below 5,065 USD, which would increase the likelihood of a deeper downside correction in XAUUSD prices.

Summary

The combination of persistent inflation and a stronger US dollar is increasing pressure on XAUUSD, limiting gold’s upside in the near term. Today’s XAUUSD outlook indicates continued bullish sentiment and a high probability of further growth towards 5,485 USD, provided prices hold above the 5,115 USD support level.

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