Gold (XAUUSD) is not rising due to Fed rate concerns

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have returned to 5,110 USD. The market sees signs of rising inflation and is scrapping the Fed’s scenario. Discover more in our analysis for 13 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• XAUUSD quotes rebounded, but gold is set to close lower for the second consecutive week
• Investors do not expect the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates anytime soon
• XAUUSD forecast for 13 March 2026: 5,100 or 5,200

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 5,110 USD per ounce on Friday, recovering after a two-day decline. The market is balancing between a geopolitical risk premium and inflationary pressures driven by higher oil prices.

On the 13th day of the conflict between the US and Iran, both sides continue to exchange tough statements. US President Donald Trump said that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and threats to the Middle East is more important than the conflict’s impact on oil prices. In response, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and warned that new fronts of the conflict could be opened if US and Israeli strikes continue.

These statements are supporting higher energy prices, reinforcing inflation concerns, and reducing expectations of an early rate cut in the US. The market is pricing in almost no chance of a rate change at the next Fed meeting, with the likelihood of one cut by the end of the year estimated at around 70%.

Despite Friday’s brief rally, gold is heading for a second consecutive weekly decline.

The outlook for gold (XAUUSD) is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) continues to consolidate after a strong upside momentum built in late February. At that time, quotes quickly climbed from the 5,000 area to highs near 5,419, but the market failed to hold those levels. After forming a local peak, prices entered a correction phase and moved back into the range.

In recent sessions, gold has been trading sideways between 4,995 and 5,419. Quotes are currently hovering around 5,113, slightly below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating moderate selling pressure. The nearest support is in the 5,085–4,995 zone, while the key resistance level is located around 5,250–5,320 and higher at 5,419.

As long as prices remain within the range, the market maintains a neutral structure. A consolidation above 5,250–5,320 could bring gold back towards the upper boundary of the range, while a breakout below 4,995 would deepen the correction and open the way for a larger decline.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with risk of a correction
• Key resistance levels: 5,250 and 5,320
• Key support levels: 5,085 and 4,995

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 5,250 USD would confirm a breakout from the current consolidation zone and create conditions for a move towards the upper boundary of the range. After the strong upside momentum in late February, the market entered a correction phase, but prices remaining above key support levels maintain the potential for demand recovery.

• Take Profit: 5,419
• Stop Loss: 5,115

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,995 USD support level would increase selling pressure and signal a deeper correction after the prior advance.

• Take Profit: 4,865
• Stop Loss: 5,085

Risk factors

Gold is under pressure from a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields amid heightened inflation risks caused by higher oil prices. Geopolitical tensions around the US–Iran conflict are fuelling market volatility.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) is on track to finish the second consecutive week lower. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 13 March 2026, suggests movement within the 5,100–5,200 range.

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