Gold (XAUUSD) under pressure: no rate cut expected before autumn

Gold (XAUUSD) slipped below 5,000 USD. The focus is on the Federal Reserve rate decision and geopolitics. Discover more in our analysis for 18 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) is falling due to Fed rate expectations, which support the US dollar
• Geopolitics plays a major role amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 March 2026: 4,950

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are hovering slightly below 5,000 USD per ounce on Wednesday, near one-month lows. Investors continue to assess how volatile oil prices may affect inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision.

The Fed is expected to keep the rate unchanged, with the main focus on the regulator’s signals regarding higher energy prices and a cooling labour market.

Major central banks, including the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, are also likely to leave their monetary policy settings unchanged.

Geopolitics remains a key factor: the US and Israel continue strikes, and Iran confirmed the death of National Security Council chief Ali Larijani. At the same time, Tehran is stepping up attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

Despite the current weakness, gold is still up about 16% year-to-date.

The outlook for gold (XAUUSD) is mildly negative.

Technical outlook

On the gold (XAUUSD) H4 chart, after a strong rally in late February, prices formed a local peak around 5,400–5,430 and then moved into a correction. The decline was sharp and accompanied by a widening of Bollinger Bands, indicating elevated volatility and profit-taking following overheating.

The market then shifted into a sideways consolidation phase with a gradual downward bias. Prices are forming lower highs, remaining in the lower half of Bollinger Bands. In recent sessions, selling pressure has intensified, with quotes slipping into the 4,950–5,000 area and consolidating near the lower boundary of the range.

Indicators confirm weakness. MACD is in negative territory and continues to decline, while the Stochastic Oscillator is hovering near oversold territory without a clear reversal. This suggests continued downward momentum, although proximity to the range’s lower edge allows for short-term bounces.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 5,075 and 5,155
• Key support levels: 4,950 and 4,845

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below 4,950 would confirm continued downward movement after the consolidation phase. Pressure remains amid a weak technical backdrop and Fed-driven expectations.

• Take Profit: 4,775
• Stop Loss: 5,025

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 5,060 would indicate a short-term rebound with the potential to move towards the resistance zone.

• Take Profit: 5,145
• Stop Loss: 4,985

Risk factors

Downside risks could be reduced by stronger demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and a softer Fed tone, which could support a recovery in gold prices.

Summary

Gold prices are declining, but geopolitics remains a key driver. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 18 March 2026, expects focus to shift towards 4,950.

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