Gold (XAUUSD) plunges: the Middle East has changed everything

Gold (XAUUSD) prices fell to 4,366 USD as markets fear accelerating inflation and a prolonged pause in central bank policy. Discover more in our analysis for 23 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) is moving lower amid rising inflation risks and a strong US dollar
• Global central banks may be forced to stay on hold due to the conflict in the Middle East
• XAUUSD forecast for 23 March 2026: 4,320

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices dropped below 4,400 USD per ounce on Monday, extending the decline for the fourth consecutive week. Pressure on the metal is intensifying due to rising inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict, as well as the need for major economies to maintain liquidity, potentially including gold sales.

The confrontation around Iran shows no signs of easing. Donald Trump threatened strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, while Tehran said it is ready to attack key US and Israeli assets in the region.

Last week, gold lost more than 10% as oil prices surged, fuelling inflation concerns. As a result, the market revised its monetary policy expectations, with participants increasingly pricing in a prolonged pause or even potential rate hikes from major central banks.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged last week, but signalled they are prepared to tighten policy if inflation pressure persists.

The outlook for gold (XAUUSD) is negative.

Technical outlook

The gold (XAUUSD) H4 chart shows that after forming a local peak near 5,400, the market shifted into a sustained decline. Since early March, the structure has turned bearish, with lower highs and lower lows forming, indicating stronger selling pressure. Recent sessions have seen the decline accelerate and the price break below the lower Bollinger Band, signalling strong momentum and elevated volatility.

The decline turned into an impulsive sell-off. The price has broken multiple intermediate support levels without significant pullbacks, confirming seller dominance. MACD is deep in negative territory and continues to fall, indicating continued bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory but has not yet produced a stable reversal signal.

At the moment, the price is testing the 4,320–4,350 area, where a local pause or bounce attempt may form. However, as long as the price remains below the broken levels and the middle Bollinger Band, the baseline scenario is continued downside pressure. Any upward attempts look corrective and may be capped by nearby resistance levels above current prices.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,450 and 4,600
• Key support levels: 4,320 and 4,200

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A sustained move below 4,320 would confirm the continuation of the impulsive decline amid seller dominance and a strengthening downtrend. The downside potential is tied to a breakout below a local support level and a new wave of selling.

• Take Profit: 4,200
• Stop Loss: 4,450

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A sustained move above 4,450 may indicate a local rebound after oversold conditions and a corrective move.

• Take Profit: 4,600
• Stop Loss: 4,320

Risk factors

Risks to the bearish scenario include a potential rise in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset if the Middle East conflict escalates further. Another factor could be a shift in Fed expectations towards a more dovish stance.

Summary

Gold prices are falling, and the downtrend is still accelerating. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 23 March 2026, suggests selling could continue towards 4,320 and lower.

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