Gold is losing its crown: why the dollar is now at its peak while XAUUSD is falling

After the decline, gold (XAUUSD) is attempting to recover, with quotes testing the 4,370 USD mark. Discover more in our analysis for 24 March 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US manufacturing PMI: previously at 51.6, projected at 51.5
• US services PMI: previously at 51.7, projected at 52.0
• XAUUSD forecast for 24 March 2026: 4,612

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold prices continue their corrective wave, currently hovering around the 4,370 USD per ounce level.

Yesterday, 23 March, the market went on a real rollercoaster ride: prices first plummeted below 4,100 USD, breaking through five support levels in a row, and then sharply surged by more than 300 USD on news from the White House.

The key reason lies in a shift in investor priorities. The escalation of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and the jump in oil prices above 100.00 USD per barrel played a cruel trick on gold. The market has now switched its focus from geopolitics to monetary policy:

• Inflation shock and interest rates: expensive oil is fuelling inflation, but investors fear not so much inflation itself as the central banks’ reaction to it. The Federal Reserve has to maintain a hawkish stance to bring prices down, making the dollar and bonds, which offer yield, more attractive than non-yielding gold
• The dollar is the main safe haven: unlike gold, the US currency benefits from the energy crisis. The US is an energy exporter, and capital is flowing into the dollar. The dollar index has risen by almost 2.0% since the conflict began, putting direct price pressure on XAUUSD
• Forced liquidation: due to the market collapse, traders needed liquidity (cash) to cover margin requirements. Since gold has high liquidity, it became one of the first assets sold, which intensified the decline

The XAUUSD forecast for 24 March 2026 takes into account that the US manufacturing PMI may fall by 0.1 points compared to the previous reading. The forecast decline is not critical, and if the actual data matches the forecast, the indicator will most likely work in favour of the USD.

The US services PMI is projected to rise to 52.0 points, which in turn may also provide additional support for the USD.

Gold has temporarily lost its status as the primary safe-haven asset in the eyes of speculators, ceding the crown to the dollar. But the paradox is that the longer the conflict drags on and the higher inflation rises, the greater the chance that central banks are making policy mistakes – and then gold will return to the game with renewed vigour.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Following this pattern’s signal, quotes may form an upward wave in the near term. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, the 4,612 USD level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another market scenario in which prices dip to the 4,100 USD level before growth.

The possibility for the uptrend to continue remains, and XAUUSD prices may return to the psychological 5,220 USD mark in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,612 and 4,860
• Key support levels: 4,250 and 4,100

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below the 4,250 level would confirm sellers’ dominance and a strengthening downtrend. The movement potential is linked to a breakout below a local support level and the development of a new downward wave.

• Take Profit: 4,100
• Stop Loss: 4,290

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above the 4,612 level would indicate that gold is regaining its position as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks.

• Take Profit: 4,860
• Stop Loss: 4,570

Risk factors

The risks to the downside scenario include possible growth in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset if the conflict in the Middle East escalates further. An additional factor may be a shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy towards easing.

Summary

Gold is attempting to recover after a sharp fall during the previous trading sessions. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 4,612 USD mark.

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