XAUUSD is gaining strength amid lower odds of a Fed rate hike

XAUUSD quotes are moving higher amid geopolitical de-escalation and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The current quote is 4,539 USD. More details are in our analysis for 25 March 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• XAUUSD quotes continue to hold within the long-term upward channel
• Market participants have strengthened expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict
• The market has lowered expectations of a Fed rate hike to 20% from more than 35% at the start of the week
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 March 2026: 4,905

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising for the second consecutive trading session. Gold is receiving support from stronger expectations of de-escalation in the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Investors are reacting to reports of negotiations between the US and Iran. According to available information, Washington is seeking to secure a temporary one-month ceasefire to hold diplomatic consultations.

Earlier, gold was under pressure and lost more than 26% from its peak. Rising energy prices amid the conflict with Iran increased inflation risks. This strengthened expectations that the Fed may continue tightening monetary policy. Despite the current correction, XAUUSD quotes continue to hold within the long-term upward channel.

Federal Reserve official Michael Barr noted that the regulator may keep interest rates at elevated levels for a longer period to contain inflation. At the same time, market expectations for the Fed rate have changed. Traders estimate the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of the year at around 20%, whereas at the start of the week this figure exceeded 35%.

The XAUUSD forecast for today is neutral-bullish, because lower expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical de-escalation are supporting demand for gold, although the factor of high interest rates continues to limit the upside potential.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are showing growth after rebounding from the lower boundary of the long-term downward channel. Despite the preceding bearish impulse, buyers managed to consolidate above the upper boundary of the corrective channel, which indicates weaker pressure from sellers. The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests an attempt to continue growth towards 4,905 USD after a confirmed rebound from the support area.

The technical picture remains on the side of buyers. The Stochastic Oscillator has exited the oversold zone and formed a bullish crossover, which increases the probability of a new upward wave. An additional signal in favour of growth will come from a breakout of the upper boundary of the corrective channel, with price consolidating above 4,645 USD.

The alternative scenario suggests a decline in quotes with a breakout of local support and consolidation below 4,445 USD, which will indicate renewed pressure from sellers and the development of a bearish correction with a target at 4,305 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,605 and 4,755
• Key support levels: 4,445 and 4,305

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation of quotes above 4,605 will increase pressure from buyers and create conditions for opening long positions. The potential profit on reaching the take-profit target is around 30,000 points, while possible losses are limited to 10,000 points. The risk-to-reward ratio stands at 1:3.

• Take Profit: 4,905
• Stop Loss: 4,505

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation of quotes below 4,455 will indicate stronger pressure from bears and a continuation of the decline.

• Take Profit: 4,860
• Stop Loss: 4,570

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario are linked to the persistence of hawkish Fed rhetoric and the probability of keeping interest rates high for a prolonged period, which continues to pressure gold. An additional negative factor will be a possible breakout of 4,445 USD, which will indicate the return of pressure from sellers and stronger corrective decline.

Summary

XAUUSD quotes are receiving support amid lower geopolitical tensions and weaker expectations of further Fed policy tightening, although the continuing factor of high interest rates still limits gold’s upside potential. The XAUUSD forecast for today remains bullish, because holding above key support levels and signals from technical indicators point to a high probability of continued upward movement.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.