Gold (XAUUSD) under pressure: rising oil prices are fuelling inflation fears

Gold (XAUUSD) fell to 4,519 USD, with the market still focused on Middle East news. Discover more in our analysis for 26 March 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• XAUUSD prices are moving down amid persistent concerns about global inflation
• The Middle East is still dictating terms to investors
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 March 2026: 4,500

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices fell to 4,519 USD per ounce on Thursday, partially offsetting the previous session’s gains. Pressure on the market persists due to contradictory statements from the US and Iran regarding possible negotiations, which is increasing uncertainty. Washington continues to talk about negotiations and, according to media reports, has already sent Iran a 15-point settlement plan through intermediaries. One of the goals is to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran, in turn, rejects the possibility of dialogue with the US. It is not ready to accept the proposed ceasefire and is putting forward its own conditions, including control over the strait.

The redeployment of US troops to the region is creating additional tension, increasing the risks of a broader conflict.

Overall, gold remains under pressure. Rising energy prices are fuelling inflation expectations and leading to a more hawkish stance from major central banks, reducing the metal’s appeal.

The forecast for gold (XAUUSD) is moderately negative.

Technical outlook

On the gold (XAUUSD) H4 chart, a pronounced downtrend persists following a reversal from highs above 5,400. In early March, the market shifted from sideways trading to a steady decline, forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

In the middle of the period, the fall accelerated sharply, with prices breaking below several support levels without significant pullbacks, signalling a momentum sell-off and strong selling pressure. The low formed in the 4,200–4,300 area.

After that, the market rebounded and is now consolidating in the 4,500–4,550 area. However, prices remain below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that sellers still control the market.

Indicators confirm this picture: MACD remains in negative territory, although the downward momentum is weakening, while the Stochastic Oscillator is exiting overbought territory and turning down, increasing the probability that the correction is ending.

Overall, the current dynamics appear to be corrective growth within a downtrend. While quotes remain below the 4,600–4,700 zone, the baseline scenario suggests a renewed decline after consolidation.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,600 and 4,700
• Key support levels: 4,450 and 4,300

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below the 4,450 level would confirm renewed downward momentum after the consolidation phase and create conditions for opening short positions. The downside potential remains amid pressure from inflation risks and hawkish central bank policies.

• Take Profit: 4,300
• Stop Loss: 4,570

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above the 4,600 level would indicate corrective growth and stronger buying activity. In this case, quotes could test the 4,700 level.

• Take Profit: 4,700
• Stop Loss: 4,480

Risk factors

Risks to the upside scenario remain limited amid the Fed’s continued hawkish rhetoric and high inflation expectations. An additional pressure factor is geopolitical uncertainty, which, through higher energy prices, is keeping rates elevated and reducing gold’s appeal.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are moving down amid stronger inflation concerns. The forecast for gold (XAUUSD) for today, 26 March 2026, suggests a continued decline towards 4,500.

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