Gold is losing its safe-haven status: why paradoxical factors may send XAUUSD tumbling

Gold is not giving up its attempts to recover as a safe-haven asset, with XAUUSD quotes testing the 4,475 USD level. Find more details in our analysis for 27 March 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Fed is tightening its rhetoric and may raise the interest rate by the end of 2026
• The US dollar index is rising confidently
• XAUUSD forecast for 27 March 2026: 4,695

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold prices are forming an upward wave, with XAUUSD quotes currently hovering around 4,475 USD per ounce.

At this stage, gold prices are behaving paradoxically, and this is why:

Paradox No. 1: The dollar and oil are rising together, with gold under pressure

The classic rule that expensive oil means a weak dollar and expensive gold is not working today. Instead, the market is seeing anomalous synchronisation:

• The dollar is gaining momentum: the US dollar index is rising confidently as investors rush into the US currency as the main safe haven amid a geopolitical storm
• Oil is above 100 USD: the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, with drones attacking key ports and pipelines, have pushed Brent above the psychological level. However, this has not supported gold and has instead created a double blow for it, as high energy prices are fuelling inflation, which means the Federal Reserve is forced to maintain hawkish monetary policy

Paradox No. 2: Inflation is hurting gold

Under normal conditions, inflation is gold’s best friend. Today, the opposite is true:

• The Federal Reserve is tightening its rhetoric: the market has fully ruled out rate cuts this year and has started to price in a hike by the end of 2026. Federal Reserve Board member Steven Miran stated that he revised his forecast towards a rate increase specifically because of inflation data, not because of oil
• Bond yields have surged: 10-year US Treasury yields have broken above the 4.41–4.50% level. This is a critical moment for gold: when paper assets, namely bonds, offer a high guaranteed yield, holding a non-yielding metal becomes economically unattractive

At first glance, news from the Strait of Hormuz should have sent gold soaring. However, the market has stopped believing in escalation or, more precisely, has switched to a stronger signal:

• Trump delays the strike: the US President announced a delay in strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and extended the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz until 6 April. This temporarily weakened the dollar, which gave gold a small respite on Friday morning
• Turkey’s messy case: Bloomberg reported that Turkey sold or substituted around 60 tonnes of gold, worth more than 8 billion USD, during the first weeks of the conflict to support liquidity and stabilise the lira. This isolated but significant influx of gold into the market intensified the collapse pressure

Gold has temporarily lost its status as the main safe-haven asset, ceding the crown to the dollar and bonds. While inflation remains an enemy rather than an ally, and while US rates remain high, the market will treat any rise in XAUUSD prices as a selling opportunity.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. In the near term, following this pattern’s signal, quotes may form another upward wave. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,695 USD level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another scenario, in which prices decline to 4,325 USD before growth.

The potential for the uptrend to continue remains, and XAUUSD prices may return to the psychological 5,220 USD level in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,695 and 4,860
• Key support levels: 4,325 and 4,100

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation of prices below 4,595 would confirm renewed upward momentum after the correction and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 4,695
• Stop Loss: 4,565

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,325 would indicate a corrective wave and stronger seller activity. In this case, prices could test the 4,100 level.

• Take Profit: 4,100
• Stop Loss: 4,350

Risk factors

The risks to the upside scenario remain the continued hawkish Fed rhetoric and high inflation expectations. An additional pressure factor is geopolitical uncertainty, which, by driving up energy prices, keeps rates elevated and reduces gold’s appeal.

Summary

After declining, gold prices are once again trying to recover their position. XAUUSD technical analysis for today suggests growth towards the 4,695 USD mark.

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