XAUUSD is rising for the third consecutive session, but remains below 4,640 USD

XAUUSD prices remain under pressure from key resistance despite local growth due to geopolitical and monetary factors, currently trading at 4,563 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 31 March 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Donald Trump stated that he is ready to end the US military campaign against Iran
• Signals of de-escalation reduced geopolitical tensions and supported demand for gold
• Federal Reserve comments weakened expectations of further interest rate hikes
• XAUUSD forecast for 31 March 2026: 4,165

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising for the third consecutive trading session. However, despite the recovery, prices remain below the key resistance level of 4,640 USD.

Gold received support after Donald Trump’s statements about his readiness to end the US military campaign against Iran even if restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz remain in place. These signals strengthened expectations of an end to the prolonged conflict and reduced geopolitical tensions, which temporarily supported demand for safe-haven assets.

An additional driver of growth was comments from Federal Reserve officials, which dampened expectations of further monetary policy tightening. Earlier, the head of the regulator noted that long-term inflation expectations in the US remain under control despite the rising oil prices driven by the military conflict. The spike in oil prices had increased inflationary pressure and previously supported expectations of rate hikes, but the current Federal Reserve rhetoric has partly neutralised these concerns.

Nevertheless, despite the positive news backdrop, the downward momentum on XAUUSD has likely not ended yet.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes have consolidated above the EMA-65, indicating stronger buying pressure. However, prices are still moving within a descending channel, limiting the upside potential and maintaining an overall bearish context. The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a renewed decline with a target at 4,165 USD.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the descending resistance line and has formed a bearish crossover, signalling the likelihood of a downward momentum developing. An additional confirmation will come from a breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective ascending channel, with quotes consolidating below the 4,430 USD level.

The alternative scenario suggests continued growth provided prices break above the upper boundary of the descending channel. Consolidation above the key resistance level at 4,640 USD will open the potential for a more sustainable upward movement.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,460 and 4,855
• Key support levels: 4,435 and 4,155

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 4,430 level would indicate a breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,165
• Stop Loss: 4,505

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,640 level would indicate a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and trigger further growth.

• Take Profit: 4,855
• Stop Loss: 4,435

Risk factors

Signals of de-escalation and easing geopolitical tensions could boost demand for gold and limit the downward movement. An additional risk to the downside scenario remains the Federal Reserve's dovish comments, which dampen expectations of rate hikes.

Summary

The current XAUUSD growth remains corrective, while prices remain under pressure below the key resistance level at 4,640 USD. The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a renewed decline with a target near the 4,165 USD level, provided the bearish market structure remains intact.

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