Gold is regaining lost ground: what is behind the rise in XAUUSD

The geopolitical backdrop and rising energy prices are becoming drivers of XAUUSD growth. The current quote is 4,700 USD. More details are in our analysis for 1 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US President stated that he expects the military operation against Iran to end
• Iran, in turn, has also signalled a willingness for dialogue
• The decisive moment for gold may be the speech by the US President
• XAUUSD forecast for 1 April 2026: 4,970

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that the gold price continues its upward wave. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering around 4,700 USD per ounce.

The main driver of today’s growth is not escalation, but hopes for its near-term end. The US President stated that he expects the military operation against Iran to end within two to three weeks, adding that Tehran does not necessarily have to make a deal for him to stop the war.

Iran, in turn, has also signalled a willingness for dialogue. The President of Iran stated that the country is ready to end the war, but only if its demands are met - above all, if guarantees of non-aggression in the future are provided.

The second key factor is the shift in Federal Reserve rhetoric. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that long-term inflation expectations remain under control and that policy is in a wait-and-see position.

This is a signal to the market: the Fed will not immediately raise rates in response to the jump in oil prices. Fear of aggressive monetary tightening has weakened, and with it US Treasury yields have fallen, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Risk factors for XAUUSD quotes:

• Double blockade of the straits: the US has sent 3,500 marines to the Middle East, and this is the largest troop build-up in recent times. The UAE is insisting on military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and if negotiations collapse, escalation will resume
• Inflation spectre: gold remains dependent on oil prices, which are still high, with Brent trading around 100.00 USD, and if energy prices do not fall, inflationary pressure will return to the Fed’s agenda
• Technical overbought conditions: after the drop in XAUUSD, buyers entered the market, and now if they start closing positions, this may limit further growth and trigger a correction

Gold is going through a dramatic moment against the backdrop of hopes for a truce between the US, Israel, and Iran. This is an example of how bad news for war becomes conditionally good news for the metal. At the same time, the fundamental factors, namely expensive oil and inflation risk, have not disappeared, so the current growth may be an attempt to profit from the hype wave rather than the beginning of a new bullish cycle. The decisive moment for gold may be the speech by US President Trump (Donald John Trump).

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. As part of this pattern’s signal, quotes continue the growth wave. Since the XAUUSD price remains within the boundaries of an upward channel, the 4,970 USD level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also assumes a second market scenario, which includes a correction in price to the 4,550 USD level before growth.

Theoretically, the opportunity for the upward trend to continue remains possible, and the XAUUSD price may return to the psychological 5,220 USD mark in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,970 and 5,230
• Key support levels: 4,550 and 4,250

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation of the price above 4,970 will indicate a breakout and the return of buyers and will create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 5,230
• Stop Loss: 4,940

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation of the price below 4,550 will indicate a breakout of the support level and will trigger the development of a further corrective wave.

• Take Profit: 4,250
• Stop Loss: 4,610

Risk factors

Signals of escalation in the conflict in the Middle East and stronger geopolitical tension may reduce demand for gold. An additional risk to the growth scenario remains comments from the Fed, which are weakening expectations of a revision in interest rates.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for 1 April 2026 is fully on the side of gold, which, despite geopolitical factors, has begun strengthening against the USD. XAUUSD technical analysis for today suggests growth in quotes towards the 4,970 USD mark.

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