XAUUSD in a trap: how two triggers could send gold prices plummeting

Amid anticipation of the US President’s press conference, XAUUSD quotes are testing the 4,650 USD mark. Find more details in our analysis for 6 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Trump’s press conference
• The market is awaiting inflation data (CPI)
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 April 2026: 4,970

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that, after the correction, gold prices are forming another upward wave. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering around 4,650 USD per ounce.

Today, the market has frozen in anticipation of two main triggers:

• Trump’s press conference. If he confirms immediate strikes on Iran’s infrastructure, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and gold could plummet below 4,500 USD
• CPI inflation data (10 April): the forecasts are alarming, with the indicator expected to rise by 1% month-on-month, marking the sharpest jump since 2022. If the figures are confirmed, hopes for rate cuts will disappear completely, which will be a knockout blow for gold

Gold has fallen into a trap. The geopolitical storm is destroying metal prices, as the market fears not the war itself but its consequences – rampant inflation and hawkish action by central banks, including the Fed. At the moment, XAUUSD is trading like a risky asset rather than a safe haven. Relief may come in two cases:

• The Federal Reserve makes a mistake in its inflation forecasts and, as a result, cuts interest rates, which appears highly unlikely in light of recent events
• The war in the Middle East ends at the negotiating table, where all parties reach mutually beneficial terms

The XAUUSD forecast for 6 April 2026 takes into account that, for now, both scenarios appear far-fetched and are virtually impossible to realise. Nevertheless, after declining, XAUUSD quotes are showing attempts to recover.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band. Following this pattern’s signal, quotes are forming an upward wave. Since prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,970 USD level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers an alternative market scenario, which includes a correction towards the 4,520 USD level before growth.

Theoretically, the possibility of the uptrend continuing remains, and XAUUSD prices may return to the psychological 5,220 USD mark in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,770 and 4,970
• Key support levels: 4,520 and 4,255

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Limit)

A breakout below the 4,520 support level would confirm increased selling pressure and the end of the upward momentum amid a stronger dollar.

• Take Profit: 4,255
• Stop Loss: 4,590

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,770 level would indicate a breakout above the resistance level and continued upward momentum.

• Take Profit: 4,970
• Stop Loss: 4,730

Risk factors

The risks to the downside scenario include stronger demand for safe-haven assets amid an escalation of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. This may support gold. At the same time, a stronger dollar and rising inflation expectations, which affect Federal Reserve policy, are limiting the upside potential and keeping pressure on the metal.

Summary

Gold is attempting to regain lost ground while awaiting US statistics. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 4,970 USD.

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