Gold (XAUUSD) in positive territory, but the pause looks fragile

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 4,800 USD. A catastrophe in the Middle East has not happened so far. Find more details in our analysis for 8 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) is in positive territory, but there are still too many geopolitical risks
• Since the start of the Middle East conflict, gold has fallen by 25% from its peak values
• XAUUSD forecast for 8 April 2026: 4,700 or 4,850

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose by more than 2% on Wednesday, moving above the 4,800 USD per ounce mark and continuing its recovery. The market received support from Donald Trump’s statements about postponing strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure for two weeks to complete negotiations.

Less than two hours before the set deadline, Trump announced a bilateral ceasefire on condition that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. He also reported receiving a 10-point proposal from Iran, which he described as a working basis for further negotiations.

At the same time, Tehran did not officially confirm either the terms of the ceasefire or its willingness to restore shipping through the strait, keeping uncertainty very high.

Since the start of the conflict, gold has lost up to 25% from its peak values amid rising energy prices and heightened inflation risks. They supported more hawkish expectations for central bank policy.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

The XAUUSD H4 chart shows that after a strong downward momentum in mid-March, the market formed a local bottom in the 4,200–4,300 area and began to recover. Prices then began to form a sequence of higher lows, indicating a change in the short-term trend from bearish to upward. The latest impulse brought quotes to the 4,800–4,850 zone.

Bollinger Bands show expansion during the rise, followed by a narrowing, which signals a slowdown in volatility and a transition to consolidation. Prices are currently near the upper boundary of the channel, indicating local overbought conditions and possible selling pressure. At the same time, holding above the middle line confirms the ongoing upward momentum.

Indicators are also giving mixed signals. MACD remains in positive territory, but its dynamics are slowing, suggesting the strength of the rally is weakening. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and is starting to turn downwards, indicating the probability of a short-term correction. In the near term, consolidation is possible with support in the 4,700–4,650 area and resistance around 4,850.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,850 and 4,900
• Key support levels: 4,700 and 4,650

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Limit)

A rebound from the 4,850 zone would confirm local overbought conditions and stronger selling pressure after the rise on the news.

• Take Profit: 4,700
• Stop Loss: 4,880

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,850 level would indicate continued upward momentum and a recovery.

• Take Profit: 4,950
• Stop Loss: 4,780

Risk factors

The risks to the downside scenario are linked to a possible escalation of the conflict, despite Trump’s statements about a pause, which may strengthen demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, a breakout above the 4,850 resistance level would strengthen the bullish scenario and confirm that the uptrend remains intact.

Summary

Gold prices are rising in response to easing geopolitical tensions, but there are still too many risks. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 8 April 2026, does not rule out consolidation in the 4,700-4,850 range.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.