XAUUSD caught in a trap: ceasefire, oil, and the Fed have thrown the market into chaos

Gold remains hostage to geopolitics, oil prices, and Federal Reserve decisions. After a sharp surge, XAUUSD quotes lost ground, hovering around 4,720 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 9 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• News of a two-week ceasefire pushed XAUUSD higher
• Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again
• Gold has become hostage to oil prices and Fed rate forecasts
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 April 2026: 4,970 or 4,595

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold staged a real rollercoaster, once again forcing investors to question the old rules of the game. Yesterday’s trading will go down in history: prices first surged by almost 152.00 USD, breaking above the 4,857 USD mark, and then plummeted just as dramatically. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering around 4,720 USD per ounce.

The entire market is now living in two parallel realities created by the fragile agreement between the US and Iran.

Reality one (euphoria):

Yesterday, news of a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan sent the dollar and oil prices sharply lower. The DXY index fell to 98.63, while Brent crude momentarily lost more than 16%. Investors rushed to buy gold, expecting that easing geopolitical tensions would open the way for the Fed to cut rates.

Reality two (harsh):

The euphoria did not last long. Iran accused the US of violating three key points of the agreement, including the continuation of Israeli strikes on Lebanon. In response, US Vice President JD Vance stated that the ceasefire did not apply to Lebanon.

The key point: Iranian media reported that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had stopped completely and that vessels were turning back. This statement supported oil and stopped the dollar’s decline.

What has been happening to gold in recent days defies conventional logic. At first glance, war is frightening, so gold should be bought. But the market is reasoning differently:

• High oil = inflation = hawkish Fed: while energy prices remain excessively high, the Federal Reserve cannot lower interest rates. High rates make the dollar and bonds more attractive than non-yielding gold
• Ceasefire = oil prices fall = rates lower: as soon as hopes of reopening the strait appeared, oil prices plummeted, and with them, expectations for a tighter Fed policy collapsed. This triggered yesterday’s jump in gold prices to 4,857 USD per ounce
• New round of conflict = oil rises = gold falls: this morning, after Iran’s statements about blocking the strait, oil prices moved higher again, and gold lost ground

Gold has temporarily lost its status as a pure safe-haven asset. It has become hostage to oil prices and forecasts for Federal Reserve rates. Right now, the market is buying not safety, but lower rates.

Gold is caught in a vice between geopolitics and monetary policy. The metal’s short-term outlook will depend on what carries more weight: fear of inflation, which kills hopes of lower rates, or fear of recession, which revives those hopes. Today, the market has frozen in anticipation of tomorrow’s US CPI data, and any move in either direction may be accompanied by higher volatility.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band and could develop an upward wave following the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the upside target could be the 4,970 USD mark.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another market scenario, which includes a correction towards 4,595 USD before growth.

Theoretically, the possibility for the uptrend to continue remains, and XAUUSD prices may return to the psychological 5,220 USD level in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,828 and 4,970
• Key support levels: 4,595 and 4,375

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 4,828 resistance level would confirm stronger buying pressure and may trigger a new upward wave on the news.

• Take Profit: 4,970
• Stop Loss: 4,795

Alternative scenario (Sell Limit)

Consolidation below 4,595 would indicate a continued correction and another downward wave.

• Take Profit: 4,375
• Stop Loss: 4,630

Risk factors

Risks to the upside include a possible escalation of the conflict, despite Trump’s statements about a two-week ceasefire, which may strengthen demand for the USD. In addition, a breakout below the 4,595 support level will strengthen the bearish scenario and confirm a deeper correction.

Summary

Gold is reacting sharply to geopolitical risks and demand for the USD, while today’s XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 4,950 USD level.

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