XAUUSD is under pressure from sellers despite rising for the third consecutive week

XAUUSD prices are balancing below key resistance while the market assesses geopolitics and signals from the Fed. The current quote is 4,753 USD. More details are in our analysis for 10 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• XAUUSD quotes are holding below the 4,785 USD resistance level
• Buyers have made four unsuccessful attempts to break this level
• Investors have shifted their focus to diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran
• XAUUSD forecast for 10 April 2026: 4,275

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes continue to correct, holding below the key resistance level of 4,785 USD. Buyers have already made four attempts to consolidate above this mark, but all of them ended unsuccessfully, which points to continued pressure from sellers.

At the same time, gold is showing growth for the third consecutive trading week. Lower geopolitical tension supported quotes: ceasefire agreements between the US and Iran triggered a sharp fall in oil prices, which in turn eased fears about accelerating inflation and the need to tighten monetary policy.

Investors have shifted their focus to upcoming diplomatic negotiations, where the US delegation will be led at the weekend by Vice President JD Vance. Expectations around the outcome of these meetings are creating additional uncertainty in the market.

At the same time, the minutes of the March FOMC meeting showed that Federal Reserve officials remain concerned about inflation risks against the backdrop of geopolitical factors. Despite this, the regulator is still oriented towards one interest rate cut this year.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes continue to correct within the bullish channel. At the same time, the price is holding below the EMA-285 line, which points to continued pressure from sellers. The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a high probability of a rebound from the upper boundary of the long-term downward channel, followed by a decline towards the 4,275 USD level.

The technical picture overall remains on the side of bears. The Stochastic Oscillator is forming a rebound from the resistance line, which signals the risk of a downward move developing. Additional confirmation comes from the indicator’s exit from the overbought zone, which points to weaker buying momentum. A breakout of the lower boundary of the bullish channel with price consolidation below the 4,615 USD level will confirm the scenario of continued decline in quotes.

The alternative scenario suggests renewed growth if the price breaks the upper boundary of the long-term downward channel and consolidates above the 4,805 USD level. In this case, the market will open the way for a deeper bullish correction.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,795 and 4,975
• Key support levels: 4,615 and 4,435

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of the lower boundary of the bullish channel with consolidation below the 4,625 level will confirm stronger pressure from sellers and create conditions for the development of a downward impulse.

• Take Profit: 4,275
• Stop Loss: 4,805

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation of the XAUUSD price above the 4,805 level will indicate a breakout of the upper boundary of the downward channel and trigger the development of growth towards the next resistance.

• Take Profit: 4,975
• Stop Loss: 4,775

Risk factors

Cancellation of the decline scenario will become likely in the event of a confident breakout of the 4,785 USD level with price consolidation above it. An additional signal will come from stronger demand for gold against the backdrop of softer Fed rhetoric or rising geopolitical risks after US-Iran negotiations, which will support the development of an upward move.

Summary

Gold is preserving its upward impulse; however, the inability to overcome the 4,785 USD level signals the risk of a deeper correction in the absence of new growth drivers. Despite the current correction within the upward channel, the priority remains with a decline towards the 4,275 USD mark while the price holds below the EMA-285 and key resistance levels.

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