Geopolitics against gold: XAUUSD prices could surge

XAUUSD prices continue their uptrend, driven by geopolitical conflicts. Quotes are testing the 4,770 USD mark. Find more details in our analysis for 14 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Producer Price Index (PPI): previously at 3.4%, projected at 4.6%
• The US has officially begun a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
• US consumer inflation rose at its fastest pace in nearly four years due to a jump in energy prices
• XAUUSD forecast for 14 April 2026: 4,970 or 4,680

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold continues its rollercoaster ride. After opening the trading week with a price gap, XAUUSD quotes closed the gap and continued to rise. At this stage, prices are hovering around 4,770 USD per ounce.

The main driver of today’s growth is not escalation, but faith in negotiations. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran is very keen to make a deal and has already contacted the US administration after the blockade began. US Vice President JD Vance added optimism by reporting significant progress in negotiations in Pakistan.

What is happening:

• The US has officially begun a naval blockade: warships are intercepting vessels heading to and from Iranian ports
• Iran threatened retaliatory measures against ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman
• At the same time, CNN reports that the Trump administration is holding internal discussions on the details of a second meeting with Iran before the ceasefire deadline expires next week

Market reaction: investors are buying not safety, but hope. The dollar is falling for the sixth consecutive session, hitting six-week lows, while gold is becoming cheaper in dollar terms for holders of other currencies.

Despite the morning optimism, analysts warn that the current growth may be short-lived.

Three factors continue to pressure gold:

• Real blockade: Trump promised to destroy Iranian warships that approach the strait. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that any military vessel in the strait zone will be regarded as a violation of the ceasefire
• Inflation shock from March: data published on Friday showed that US consumer inflation rose at its fastest pace in nearly four years, driven by a jump in energy prices
• PPI on the horizon: the US Producer Price Index due today is projected to rise to 4.6% year-on-year from the previous 3.4%. If the actual reading matches the forecast, this may bring back hawkish expectations and send gold prices tumbling

Gold is living in two parallel realities. The real blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s threats are a bearish factor, as they push oil prices and inflation higher. Hopes for a quick resumption of negotiations are a bullish factor, as they weaken the dollar. Today, the market has chosen hope, but the fragility of this balance is obvious.

At the same time, the XAUUSD forecast for 14 April 2026 takes into account that any headline from the White House may trigger a move in quotes of 50-100 USD within minutes.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band and may continue their upward movement following the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the upside target could be 4,970 USD.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests a second market scenario, with prices undergoing a correction towards the 4,680 USD level before growth.

Theoretically, the possibility for the uptrend to continue remains, and XAUUSD prices may return to the psychological 5,220 USD level in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,830 and 4,970
• Key support levels: 4,680 and 4,500

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

*Main scenario (Buy Stop)*

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,830 level would confirm an upward exit from the current consolidation and increased buying pressure.

• Take Profit: 4,970
• Stop Loss: 4,800

*Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)*

Consolidation below 4,680 would indicate a breakout of the support level and the return of initiative to sellers, with the potential for the corrective wave to continue.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,710

Risk factors

Risks to growth include a possible easing of geopolitical tensions or the start of new negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz, which may reduce demand for safe-haven assets. An additional factor will be a stronger dollar or tighter expectations for Federal Reserve rates.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to recover after falling sharply at the opening of the trading week, with geopolitical tensions contributing to volatility. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 4,970 USD resistance level.

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