Gold (XAUUSD) recovers losses: risk has eased

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 4,800 USD, as investors are pleased with the prospect of inflationary pressure easing. Discover more in our analysis for 16 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices are reacting positively to the prospect of negotiations between the US and Iran
• Quotes are clearly recovering after the sharp decline a month ago
• XAUUSD forecast for 16 April 2026: 4,850

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) returned above 4,800 USD per ounce on Thursday, recouping the previous session’s losses. Prices received support from a reassessment of the prospects for negotiations between the US and Iran and of a possible long-term peace agreement, which may reduce inflationary pressure.

According to media reports, Washington and Tehran are considering extending the two-week ceasefire to gain time for negotiations. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed because of a double blockade.

The market focus is shifting towards a potential second round of US-Iran talks. The key topics are expected to be the reopening of the strait and Tehran’s nuclear program.

In recent weeks, gold has been supported by diplomatic progress in the Middle East: easing geopolitical tensions weakened inflation expectations and reduced pressure on central banks to tighten policy.

Nevertheless, the precious metal remains about 9% lower since the conflict began.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

The gold (XAUUSD) H4 chart shows that the upward structure remains in place after a sharp decline in mid-March. Prices are gradually forming higher lows and higher highs, moving within an expanding range. Quotes have consolidated above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating continued moderate upward momentum.

The upper boundary of the range runs around 4,820–4,830 and acts as local resistance, where prices have already slowed several times. Support has shifted to the 4,700–4,720 zone, where the lower boundary of the current consolidation is located and where buyer activity was seen earlier. A deeper support level remains at 4,550, from where the latest upward wave began.

Indicators confirm a consolidation phase with an upward bias: MACD remains in positive territory, but is losing momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is exiting oversold territory and turning upwards. This may indicate an attempt at a new upward move towards 4,850. However, a breakout below the 4,700 level would increase the likelihood of a deeper correction.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,830 and 4,850
• Key support levels: 4,710 and 4,550

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,830 level would confirm a breakout from the local consolidation phase and a continued upward movement. An ongoing structure of higher lows indicates a gradual strengthening of buying pressure.

• Take Profit: 4,850
• Stop Loss: 4,780

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,710 would signal a weakening of the current momentum and a return of sellers, with the risk of a deeper correction towards a stronger support level.

• Take Profit: 4,550
• Stop Loss: 4,760

Risk factors

Risks to the upside are linked to progress in US-Iran negotiations and a possible easing of geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which could reduce demand for safe-haven assets. Additional pressure may come from a stronger dollar and a change in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

Summary

Gold prices are recovering confidently, but remain 9% below their pre-Middle East conflict levels. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 16 April 2026, does not rule out continued growth with an intermediate target at 4,850.

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