A ceasefire with Iran will send oil prices plummeting and weaken the dollar: XAUUSD seeks new highs

XAUUSD quotes continue to rise with minor corrections. A ceasefire between Iran and the US may send oil prices plummeting and push gold prices higher. XAUUSD quotes are testing the 4,800 USD mark. Find out more in our analysis for 17 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US President stated that Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• Gold has undergone a tectonic shift in market logic
• A weakening dollar and strategic forecasts support gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 April 2026: 4,970

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold is confidently ending the fourth week with gains. The market is undergoing a remarkable transformation: investors have stopped treating geopolitics as a threat and have started buying hope for peace. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering around 4,800 USD per ounce.

At first glance, the end of the conflict should weaken demand for safe-haven assets, but gold is showing the opposite trend. Market logic has changed fundamentally.

Geopolitical hope:

• US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the imminent conclusion of a permanent truce with Iran, stating that Tehran had agreed to conditions it had previously rejected, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
• Negotiations are ongoing, with the agreement expected to be signed within the coming days. Trump also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon

Impact on gold:

• The market is reasoning as follows: truce → reopening of the strait → lower oil prices → easing inflationary pressures → the Fed softens its rhetoric → the dollar weakens → gold rises.

And this logic worked. Hopes for peace pushed Brent crude below 100.00 USD, weakening the dollar and removing the main reason for hawkish Fed policy.

The coming days will be determined by two key factors:

• US-Iran negotiations: if concrete details about signing a peace agreement appear over the weekend, oil will continue to fall, the dollar will weaken, and gold may break above 4,900 USD as early as next week. But if negotiations reach a dead end, and Iran has not yet publicly confirmed concessions, the geopolitical premium will return, but this time in gold’s favour – the paradox remains in force
• Oil prices: while Brent is trading below 100.00 USD, inflation expectations are declining, which gives the Federal Reserve room to manoeuvre. But if the blockade of the strait continues, oil prices may return to 115.00 USD and continue their upward trajectory, and then the logic will change again

Gold has undergone a tectonic shift in market logic. Investors no longer fear war – they fear the inflation it generates. Therefore, news of peace that drives oil prices down is now pushing gold higher, not lower. This is the market’s new reality. Fundamentally, gold is receiving support from two sides at once: from a weakening dollar and from strategic forecasts that point to growth in XAUUSD quotes to 8,000 USD.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band. As the pattern’s signal plays out, quotes may form an upward wave. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,970 USD resistance level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another market scenario, in which prices correct towards the 4,710 USD level before growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,845 and 4,970
• Key support levels: 4,710 and 4,550

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,845 level would confirm the continuation of the upward trend. The fact that prices hit new highs suggests that buying pressure is gradually increasing.

• Take Profit: 4,970
• Stop Loss: 4,800

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 4,710 level would signal a weakening of the uptrend and a return of sellers. In this case, the correction may intensify.

• Take Profit: 4,550
• Stop Loss: 4,750

Risk factors

Risks to the upside are associated with progress in US-Iran negotiations and a possible easing of geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which may reduce demand for safe-haven assets. Additional pressure may come from a stronger dollar and a change in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

Summary

Gold prices are becoming somewhat detached from geopolitics, with investors gradually returning to buying precious metals in the hope of a weaker USD. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 4,970 USD resistance level.

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