XAUUSD quotes are falling despite the crisis

Gold (XAUUSD) opened the trading week with a price gap and remains around the 4,780 USD mark. Discover more in our analysis for 20 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The ceasefire between the US and Iran, which was supposed to last 10 days, has come under threat
• The market is once again talking about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz
• The USD remains the main beneficiary of higher interest rates
• XAUUSD forecast for 20 April 2026: 4,970

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold (XAUUSD) opened the week with an unexpected decline, breaking the traditional logic that geopolitical tensions equal higher metal prices. The reason for the paradox lies in a shift in the market risk structure: investors fear not the war itself, but its consequences for monetary policy. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering around 4,780 USD per ounce.

Reasons for the decline in XAUUSD quotes:

• The ceasefire between the US and Iran, which was supposed to last 10 days, was in jeopardy just hours after the announcement. Iran stated that it would not take part in the new round of negotiations scheduled for Tuesday, and also threatened retaliatory measures after the US military seized an Iranian cargo vessel that was attempting to break the blockade
• The immediate reaction was a jump in oil prices: Brent crude surged, and the market once again began to speculate about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz
• This is where the main paradox lies. The sharp rise in oil triggered not a flight into gold, but panic in the interest rate market. Investors realised: high oil = accelerating inflation = the Fed will not only avoid cutting rates, but may even raise them further at the next meeting
• The result was a stronger dollar, with the DXY index rising, as the US currency remains the main beneficiary of higher rates. A strong dollar and high rates are a deadly combination for non-yielding gold, which becomes too expensive for holders of other currencies

Gold has found itself hostage to oil prices and monetary policy. Today’s decline is not a classic move away from risk, but the market’s realisation that high oil prices lead to high rates, causing problems for non-yielding metal. Another attempt at negotiations between Iran and the US may put everything in its place.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Following this pattern’s signal, quotes may form an upward wave and close the gap. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,970 USD resistance level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another market scenario, which includes a pullback to the 4,710 USD level before growth.

Given geopolitical tensions, the opportunity for the upward trend to continue remains possible in theory, and XAUUSD prices may return to the psychological 5,220 USD mark in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,790 and 4,970
• Key support levels: 4,710 and 4,550

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,790 level would confirm continued upward momentum. Closing the price gap would indicate stronger gold.

• Take Profit: 4,970
• Stop Loss: 4,750

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 4,710 level would signal a weakening of the uptrend and a return of sellers. In this case, the downward wave may continue to a key support level.

• Take Profit: 4,550
• Stop Loss: 4,750

Risk factors

Risks to growth are linked to progress in US-Iran negotiations and a possible easing of geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which may reduce demand for safe-haven assets. Additional pressure may come from a stronger dollar and a change in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

Summary

Gold opened the trading week with a price gap and remains dependent on the geopolitical situation. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 4,970 USD.

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