Gold (XAUUSD) is stabilising ahead of negotiations

Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain near 4,800 USD on Tuesday. The market needs to understand the prospects for the Middle East conflict. Discover more in our analysis for 21 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain under pressure due to central bank prospects and the energy crisis
• Upward momentum is losing strength
• XAUUSD forecast for 21 April 2026: 4,740

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering near 4,800 USD per ounce after declining the previous day. The market is taking a wait-and-see stance ahead of the second round of US-Iran negotiations, which may take place before the current ceasefire expires.

The US delegation is expected to be led once again by JD Vance. At the same time, Iran is reportedly ready to return to dialogue despite its earlier refusals.

Donald Trump stated that an extension of the ceasefire is unlikely without an agreement. The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until agreements are reached.

The conflict has already led to a serious shock in energy supplies, increasing inflation risks and raising the likelihood of tighter central bank policy. This is restraining gold’s growth.

Since the conflict began, gold prices remain 8% lower than before.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the gold (XAUUSD) H4 chart, upward momentum remains intact following the rebound from the March lows. Prices consistently formed higher lows and higher highs, but in recent sessions, the rally has slowed and moved into a phase of sideways consolidation in the 4,780–4,850 area. Quotes are moving along the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers.

Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow after a period of expansion, signalling lower volatility and accumulation before the next move. The upper boundary around 4,900 acts as resistance, where prices have already slowed several times. The lower boundary and the support zone are shifting towards 4,740–4,700, where demand had appeared earlier.

Indicators confirm cooling momentum. MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram is declining, indicating that the upward momentum is losing strength. The Stochastic Oscillator is exiting overbought territory and is pointing downwards, signalling the likelihood of a short-term correction or continued sideways movement before a new attempt at growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,850 and 4,900
• Key support levels: 4,740 and 4,700

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,850 level would confirm a breakout from the consolidation phase and an attempt to continue growth. This will indicate the return of buyers after the pause and open the way to a test of 4,900.

• Take Profit: 4,900
• Stop Loss: 4,800

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,740 would signal weaker momentum and a move into a deeper correction. In this case, pressure may intensify towards 4,700.

• Take Profit: 4,700
• Stop Loss: 4,800

Risk factors

Risks to growth are linked to possible progress in US-Iran negotiations and easing tensions, which will reduce demand for safe-haven assets. An additional factor may be a stronger dollar and a revision of Fed rate expectations towards a more hawkish policy.

Summary

Gold prices are not rising due to a combination of external factors. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 21 April 2026, does not rule out a decline to 4,740.

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