XAUUSD in a trap: a ceasefire or failed negotiations will decide gold’s fate

After a sharp decline, XAUUSD quotes are attempting to regain lost ground and are currently testing the 4,750 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 22 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US President extended the ceasefire
• Negotiations in Pakistan have collapsed
• The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues
• XAUUSD forecast for 22 April 2026: 4,970

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold (XAUUSD) is going through a day of sharp contrasts: the morning rebound on news of the ceasefire gave way to caution, as peace negotiations between the US and Iran remain in limbo. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering around 4,750 USD per ounce.

The main driver of today’s volatility is the conflicting signals from the US and Iran, which have created significant uncertainty in the market.

Drivers of volatility in XAUUSD quotes:

• Trump extended the ceasefire – the US President announced a unilateral extension of the deadlines, which caused a brief sigh of relief in the markets
• Negotiations in Pakistan have collapsed – Vice President Vance cancelled the trip, and Iran stated that it would not take part in the new round
• The blockade of the strait continues – Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the naval blockade remains in place

The market has found itself trapped by its own expectations. On the one hand, the extension of the ceasefire reduces the geopolitical premium and weakens the dollar, supporting gold. On the other hand, the collapse of full-fledged negotiations means that the conflict may drag on, pushing oil prices higher and fuelling inflation expectations, which are working against gold under current conditions.

The XAUUSD forecast for 22 April 2026 takes into account that gold is caught in the complex interplay between geopolitics and monetary policy. War in the Middle East is no longer an unambiguously bullish factor: it pushes oil prices higher, and oil forces the Fed to keep rates high, killing demand for the non-yielding metal. Today’s negotiations in London will be decisive: success may open the way to 5,000 USD, while failure in negotiations may send gold down to 4,600 USD and below.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could continue its upward momentum following the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,970 USD resistance level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests a second market scenario in which prices pull back to the 4,640 USD level before growth.

Given geopolitical tensions, theoretically, the possibility for the uptrend to continue remains, and XAUUSD prices may return to the psychological 5,220 USD level in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,820 and 4,970
• Key support levels: 4,640 and 4,500

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 4,820 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, indicating the return of buyers after the pause and opening the way to a test of 4,970.

• Take Profit: 4,970
• Stop Loss: 4,790

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,640 would signal weakening buyers and a deeper correction. In this case, selling pressure may intensify, and XAUUSD quotes could head towards the 4,500 support level.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,670

Risk factors

Risks to growth remain linked to possible progress in US-Iran negotiations and easing tensions, which will reduce demand for safe-haven assets. An additional factor may be a stronger dollar and a revision of Fed rate expectations towards more hawkish monetary policy.

Summary

Gold prices are not rising due to a combination of external factors and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 4,970 USD resistance level.

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