Gold (XAUUSD) has become dependent on the Fed and oil

Statements from the White House are once again triggering heightened volatility in XAUUSD quotes; at the moment, they are testing the 4,710 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 23 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Iran has taken decisive measures
• Trump has abandoned deadlines
• Kevin Warsh has dispelled market hopes for rate cuts
• XAUUSD forecast for 23 April 2026: 4,970

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast, 23 April 2026, shows that gold is balancing on the edge of a technical breakdown after hopes for a peaceful settlement were shattered by harsh reality. On Thursday morning, quotes are once again testing the psychological level of 4,700 USD per ounce.

The main driver of today’s volatility is the market’s realisation that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is no longer saving gold, but instead is working against it.

Drivers of volatility in XAUUSD quotes:

• Iran has taken active measures: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which caused an immediate jump in oil to the 100.00 USD mark and strengthened the dollar as the main safe-haven asset
• Trump has abandoned deadlines: the US President stated that he has no timeframe for ending the war, dashing hopes for a quick truce that had formed last week
• Fed hawk strikes: Fed chair candidate Kevin Warsh dispelled market hopes for rate cuts, stating that he had given Trump no promises and would act independently

The market is trapped in a paradoxical logic: when guns fire, investors run not into gold, but into the dollar and oil. High oil prices fuel inflation, inflation forces the Fed to keep rates high, and high rates destroy demand for the non-yielding metal.

Gold is caught in the complex interplay between geopolitics and monetary policy. War in the Middle East is no longer a clear-cut bullish factor – it pushes oil upwards, and oil prices force the Fed to keep rates high, which destroys demand for the non-yielding metal.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and may develop another upward wave following the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,970 USD resistance level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another market scenario, with prices pulling back to the 4,640 USD level before growth.

Given geopolitical tensions, theoretically, the possibility for the uptrend to continue remains, and XAUUSD prices may return to the psychological 5,220 USD level in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: Range
• Key resistance levels: 4,820 and 4,970
• Key support levels: 4,640 and 4,500

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,820 level would confirm continued upward momentum, indicating the return of buyers after the pause and opening the way to a test of 4,970.

• Take Profit: 4,970
• Stop Loss: 4,790

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,640 would signal weakening buyers and a move into a deeper correction. In this case, selling pressure may intensify, and XAUUSD quotes could head towards the 4,500 support level.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,670

Risk factors

Risks to growth remain linked to possible progress in US-Iran negotiations and easing tensions, which will reduce demand for safe-haven assets. An additional factor remains a stronger dollar and a revision of Fed rate expectations towards tighter monetary policy.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain dependent on external events and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 4,970 USD resistance level after a correction.

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