XAUUSD continues to decline for the second consecutive session

XAUUSD quotes remain under pressure amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, currently hovering at 4,638 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 28 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Investors are assessing the prospects for renewed diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran
• Iran is reportedly ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• Experts are warning that the current optimism may be short-lived
• XAUUSD forecast for 28 April 2026: 4,335

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are declining for the second consecutive trading session. Sellers have nearly tested the key support level at 4,625 USD. Earlier, buyers attempted to gain a foothold above the 4,865 USD resistance level but failed to break above it, after which the initiative shifted to sellers and prices reversed downwards.

Investors continue to assess the prospects for renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Iran conflict, which previously caused serious disruptions in energy supplies and intensified inflation risks. Reports that Iran is ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end military action, while postponing nuclear negotiations, supported cautious optimism in the markets.

At the same time, experts warn that the current optimism may prove short-lived, while pressure on the energy market may intensify again in the near term, increasing the negative consequences for the global economy.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are declining after rebounding from the EMA-65, while sellers have nearly reached the key support level at 4,625 USD. The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a continued fall towards the 4,335 USD area after a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel.

Overall, the technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the downward resistance line, signalling the potential for a renewed decline. An additional factor is the formation of a bearish crossover by the indicator. Consolidation below the 4,545 USD level would confirm a breakout of the boundary of the corrective channel and strengthen the signal for a further decline in gold prices.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth if prices break above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidate above the 4,725 USD level. In this case, the likelihood of a deeper bullish correction will increase.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,665 and 4,825
• Key support levels: 4,625 and 4,565

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, with quotes consolidating below 4,545 USD, would create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,335
• Stop Loss: 4,640

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,705 would confirm a resumption of the upward movement and indicate a breakout above the upper boundary of the bearish channel.

• Take Profit: 4,830
• Stop Loss: 4,615

Risk factors

Escalating geopolitical tensions or a breakdown in diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran may bring back demand for safe-haven assets. An additional risk is a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a consolidation above 4,725 USD, which would cancel the bearish scenario and strengthen the upward correction.

Summary

The fundamental backdrop for XAUUSD points to a restrained decline amid cautious optimism around the conflict de-escalation. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests continued downward pressure, with a downside target at 4,335 USD, provided prices remain below the key resistance levels.

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