Gold (XAUUSD) does not believe in a miracle: prices are falling due to the Middle East and its consequences

Gold (XAUUSD) is declining to 4,598 USD as inflation risks are exerting too much pressure. Discover more in our analysis for 29 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are moving downwards as inflation risks are increasing significantly
• Global central banks will be forced either to keep rates unchanged or to raise them
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 April 2026: 4,580 or 4,500

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is holding below 4,600 USD per ounce on Wednesday after falling by almost 2% the previous day. The current levels are the lowest in a month. Pressure is linked to the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Donald Trump, Iran is demanding that the naval blockade be lifted while negotiations continue. At the same time, disruptions have already reduced energy supplies from the Middle East. The closure of the strait restricts about 20% of global oil flows, which the IEA describes as the largest supply shock. This is increasing inflationary pressure.

The market is increasingly pricing in the likelihood that central banks will keep rates high for longer or even tighten policy. This is negative for gold as a non-yielding asset.

Earlier in the week, the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged. Decisions from the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada are expected in the coming days.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is negative.

Technical outlook

The gold (XAUUSD) H4 chart shows that after attempting to hold within the 4,800–4,850 range, the market has started to decline. The pattern of lower highs and lows has intensified, and the downward move has become more directional. The latest candlesticks show accelerating selling with a move below local support levels, indicating increasing selling pressure.

Prices have consolidated below the middle Bollinger Band and are moving along the lower boundary, confirming downward momentum. The current 4,580–4,600 zone is acting as short-term support after the sharp decline, but the structure remains weak. The nearest resistance is now shifting to the 4,700–4,720 area, where prices consolidated earlier.

Indicators confirm the negative dynamics. MACD is deep in negative territory and continues to decline, signalling seller dominance. The Stochastic Oscillator is attempting to turn upwards from oversold territory, suggesting a short-term rebound, but does not yet reverse the overall trend. Overall, the market appears to be declining, with possible pauses in the form of technical corrections.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,700 and 4,720
• Key support levels: 4,580 and 4,500

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,580 level would confirm downward momentum amid rising inflation risks and expectations of tighter central bank policy. In this case, pressure may intensify with a move towards 4,500.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,635

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)*

Consolidation above 4,700 would signal a corrective rebound after oversold conditions. In this case, prices may return to the 4,720 area and above if the external backdrop stabilises.

• Take Profit: 4,720
• Stop Loss: 4,650

Risk factors

Risks to the decline are linked to possible de-escalation of the conflict and progress in US-Iran negotiations, which may bring back demand for safe-haven assets. An additional factor would be softer central bank rhetoric, which may support gold.

Summary

Gold prices are declining, driven by the consequences of the Middle East conflict. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 29 April 2026, suggests a slide to 4,580 and then to 4,500.

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