Gold (XAUUSD) on the edge of a reversal: the market saw an opportunity after the Fed decision

After falling following the Fed’s decision to keep the interest rate unchanged, XAUUSD quotes are recovering and testing the 4,555 USD level. Find more details in our analysis for 30 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US GDP for Q3: previously at 0.5%, projected at 2.2%
• Core PCE price index: previously at 2.7%, projected at 4.1%
• XAUUSD forecast for 30 April 2026: 4,720 or 4,425

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 30 April 2026, shows that gold is rebounding after reaching its monthly low, as the bearish momentum from the Fed’s hawkish surprise is gradually fading. On Thursday morning, quotes are recovering and consolidating around 4,555 USD per ounce.

The Federal Reserve held the rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, as expected, but the hawks are demanding a hike. The voting result was the real shock: 8 to 4 — the highest number of dissents since 1992, and three of the dissenters demanded tighter rhetoric without any hint of future interest rate cuts. This is radically changing market expectations: while rate cuts had previously been under discussion, the market is now pricing in more than a 10% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year.

Despite falling prices, the World Gold Council reported that global demand for gold rose by 2.0% in Q1 2026. Central banks increased reserves at the fastest pace of the last year, while investment demand for bars and coins rose amid weaker jewellery demand.

The market has found itself at the centre of controversy. On the one hand, the Fed’s hawkish pause and strong economic data, with durable goods orders up to 0.8% against a forecast of 0.5%, are pushing the dollar higher and weighing on gold. On the other hand, the endless conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is attracting buyers who see current levels as an entry point.

Although gold prices have lost about 13.0% since late February, the paradox is that the longer the energy crisis lasts, the stronger the decline in real yields becomes, which ultimately works in favour of the metal. Today, the market has frozen in anticipation of US GDP data and the PCE price index, which could become the next trigger for XAUUSD price movements.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Following the pattern’s signal, quotes may form an upward wave. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,720 USD resistance level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another market scenario, which includes a pullback to the 4,425 USD level before growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,720 and 4,845
• Key support levels: 4,425 and 4,250

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 4,425 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend amid rising inflation risks and expectations of tighter central bank policy. In this case, quotes could test the 4,250 support level.

• Take Profit: 4,250
• Stop Loss: 4,455

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,720 would signal a renewed uptrend after the correction. In this case, prices could return to the 4,845 level and continue to rise if the external backdrop stabilises.

• Take Profit: 4,845
• Stop Loss: 4,690

Risk factors

Risks to the decline are still linked to possible de-escalation of the conflict and progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, which may bring back demand for safe-haven assets. An additional factor will be softer central bank rhetoric and increased central bank demand for gold.

Summary

After the fall caused by the Fed’s interest rate decision, XAUUSD is recovering, awaiting new statistics from the US. Today’s XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 4,720 USD resistance level.

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