The risk of XAUUSD testing the 4,500 USD support level remains

XAUUSD quotes remain under pressure amid growing expectations of continued high Fed rates and weaker demand for safe-haven assets, currently standing at 4,601 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 4 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Buyers have attempted to consolidate above the 4,655 USD level for three trading sessions
• Federal Reserve officials stated that the oil shock limits the possibility of interest rate cuts
• High rates reduce the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 May 2026: 4,455 USD

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are declining after a confident rebound from the 4,655 USD resistance level. Buyers attempted to gain a foothold above this mark for three trading sessions, but all attempts failed, increasing selling pressure. Against this backdrop, the risks of a repeated test of the key support level at 4,500 USD remain. Investors remain focused on President Donald Trump’s initiative to escort civilian vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This measure is aimed at ensuring the safe passage of vessels from non-aligned countries out of the tension zone and restoring normal logistics operations.

XAUUSD continues to face pressure from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rhetoric. Following the latest meeting, officials who opposed policy easing stressed that a possible oil shock amid the conflict with Iran limits the scope for rate cuts. On the contrary, rising inflation risks may necessitate maintaining high interest rates for a longer period, or even raising them further. Rising oil prices fuel these expectations, shaping expectations of high rates for a longer period. This, in turn, is putting pressure on gold quotes, as non-yielding assets become less attractive when borrowing costs are high.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are declining after rebounding from the upper boundary of the descending channel, with the potential for a Wedge reversal pattern to form. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests a decline towards 4,455 USD.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator formed a bearish crossover immediately after leaving oversold territory, signalling strengthening downward momentum. Consolidation below the 4,580 USD level would confirm the downside scenario and indicate a breakout below the lower boundary of the Wedge pattern.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth if the upper boundary of the descending channel is broken and prices consolidate above the 4,645 USD level. In this case, the likelihood of an upward correction will increase.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,635 and 4,725
• Key support levels: 4,545 and 4,500

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the Wedge pattern and consolidation below 4,575 would create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,455
• Stop Loss: 4,680

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)*

Consolidation above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a breakout of the 4,720 level would signal a bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 4,725
• Stop Loss: 4,545

Risk factors

Escalating geopolitical tensions or a breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran could boost demand for XAUUSD as a safe-haven asset, pushing prices higher. Softer Federal Reserve rhetoric could increase the appeal of gold and limit the downside potential for XAUUSD quotes.

Summary

The combination of easing geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance is creating downward pressure on XAUUSD, increasing the likelihood of a further decline. If selling pressure persists, the baseline scenario remains a fall, with XAUUSD prices testing the 4,455 USD level.

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