XAUUSD prices broke through a key level, with the market betting on gold again

Gold prices are rising confidently for the second consecutive session amid easing tensions in the Middle East. XAUUSD quotes are testing the 4,655 USD per ounce level. Discover more in our analysis for 6 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 62 thousand, projected at 118 thousand
• Hopes for a peace agreement between the US and Iran are becoming realistic again
• Hopes for peace are weakening the dollar and oil, strengthening gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 May 2026: 4,840

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 6 May 2026, shows that gold continues its confident recovery for the second consecutive session after breaking through the psychological 4,600 USD level. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering near 4,655 USD per ounce.

Hopes for a peace agreement between the US and Iran are becoming realistic again, weakening the dollar and reducing inflation fears through falling oil prices. On Tuesday, the US President announced the suspension of Project Freedom to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, citing significant progress towards reaching a comprehensive agreement with Iran. Against this backdrop, the USD is weakening across the board, with the DXY index down 0.2%, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stressed that the ceasefire remains in place and that the US is not seeking escalation.

High oil prices are fuelling inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, which is stifling demand for the non-yielding metal. Lower energy prices, by contrast, reduce inflationary pressure and weaken expectations of Fed policy tightening. All this is working in favour of gold, which is becoming a key focus for investors.

Today, US ADP nonfarm employment change data will be published, marking the first important signal ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. A lower-than-expected actual reading could weaken the dollar and support gold, while a stronger reading could bring hawkish expectations back.

The XAUUSD forecast for 6 May 2026 takes into account that gold is strengthening amid hopes for peace in the Middle East. The paradoxical logic under which war pushed metal prices down, through inflation and Fed rates, has been replaced by the opposite: hopes for peace are weakening the dollar and oil, which is now working in gold’s favour.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could continue the upward wave following the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, the 4,840 USD resistance level could act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests a second market scenario, which includes a pullback to the 4,520 USD level before growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,720 and 4,840
• Key support levels: 4,520 and 4,375

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 4,720 would confirm sustained bullish pressure amid easing tensions in the Middle East and would strengthen the upward movement.

• Take Profit: 4,840
• Stop Loss: 4,690

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,520 would signal a continuation of the downtrend after the correction. In this case, XAUUSD prices could return to 4,375 USD.

• Take Profit: 4,375
• Stop Loss: 4,550

Risk factors

Risks to growth are linked to further escalation in the Middle East: stronger tensions may push oil prices higher and weaken gold. An additional factor will be stronger expectations of a Fed interest rate hike.

Summary

Amid easing conditions in the Middle East and falling oil prices, gold is once again attempting to regain its position against the USD. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 4,840 USD.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.