Gold (XAUUSD) is gaining: hopes for conflict resolution are lifting sentiment

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are standing at 4,705 USD, remaining near their highs amid hopes for a deal. Discover more in our analysis for 7 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices are recovering as the external environment improves
• The market is fully focused on Middle East news
• XAUUSD forecast for 7 May 2026: 4,725

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 4,705 USD per troy ounce after rising about 3% the previous day. Lower oil prices supported the metal, as expectations of a possible agreement between the US and Iran reduced inflation risks.

According to media reports, Washington sent Tehran a framework memorandum through intermediaries. It may become a step towards ending the conflict and gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s response is expected in the coming days, while broader negotiations on the nuclear program may begin later.

Falling oil prices are reducing pressure on inflation and dampening expectations of prolonged central bank policy tightening. However, the Federal Reserve warns that inflation still remains far from the 2% target. Since the start of the conflict, it has even accelerated.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderately favourable.

Technical outlook

The XAUUSD H4 chart shows that after forming a local high in mid-April, the market entered a sustained downtrend. The downward movement developed consistently, with lower highs and lower lows forming, indicating seller dominance. The fall accelerated at the end of April, when prices moved beyond local support levels and approached the zone around 4,500, where the market began to search for balance.

In early May, the dynamics changed, with the market beginning to recover after forming a local low. The rise is impulsive – several strong bullish candlesticks quickly returned prices to the 4,700 area. At the same time, quotes moved above the middle Bollinger Band and consolidated in the upper part of the range, signalling a shift in short-term sentiment in favour of buyers. However, the move so far appears to be a correction within a broader downward structure.

Indicators confirm a recovery, but without a complete trend reversal. MACD moved into positive territory and is strengthening the growth signal, while the Stochastic Oscillator turned downwards from overbought territory, hinting at a possible pause or pullback. Overall, the market appears to be in a corrective growth phase following a sharp decline. To confirm the upside scenario, prices need to hold above 4,700 and continue their move to higher levels; otherwise, the risk of renewed pressure remains.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward (corrective recovery)
• Key resistance levels: 4,725 and 4,840
• Key support levels: 4,520 and 4,375

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,725 level would confirm the recovery amid lower inflation expectations and hopes for conflict de-escalation. In this case, the move could continue towards 4,840.

• Take Profit: 4,840
• Stop Loss: 4,690

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,520 would indicate the end of the corrective rise and renewed selling pressure, opening the way for a decline towards the 4,375 area.

• Take Profit: 4,375
• Stop Loss: 4,550

Risk factors

Risks to growth are linked to a possible collapse in negotiations between the US and Iran and a new jump in oil prices, which would fuel inflation expectations. Additional pressure could come from the Federal Reserve if the regulator strengthens its hawkish rhetoric on rates.

Summary

Gold prices are moving upwards, but the market still lacks confidence in the stability of this move. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 7 May 2026, does not rule out an extended recovery towards 4,725.

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