XAUUSD on hold, US CPI will determine the direction

After reaching new May highs, XAUUSD prices are forming a correction and awaiting the US CPI release. Quotes currently stand at 4,715 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 12 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 3.3%, projected at 3.7%
• The upcoming US-China summit is adding uncertainty to XAUUSD quotes
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 May 2026: 4,650 and 4,840

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 12 May 2026, shows that gold is forming a correction ahead of the key US inflation data release, with quotes currently hovering around 4,715 USD per ounce.

Today’s main news is the publication of the US Consumer Price Index. This event brings together the geopolitical deadlock in the Middle East, technical uncertainty, and a shift in monetary expectations, creating specific conditions for the market.

The CPI reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping assess consumer trends and economic stagnation. A lower-than-expected reading typically negatively impacts the national currency.

The XAUUSD forecast for 12 May 2026 takes into account that the US CPI may rise to 3.7%, up from the previous 3.3%. Higher CPI may become a driver of USD strengthening, which in turn, may once again push gold prices lower.

Gold has frozen on the verge of a crucial decision. On the one hand, the ceasefire in the Middle East is once again hanging by a thread, and the upcoming US-China summit is adding uncertainty. On the other hand, the fundamental factor of the CPI release could become the argument that pushes geopolitics into the background in the short term.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As the pattern signal plays out, quotes may form a corrective wave. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,650 USD support level could be the downside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another market scenario in which quotes climb to 4,840 USD without testing the support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,735 and 4,840
• Key support levels: 4,650 and 4,520

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,735 resistance level would indicate renewed upward momentum and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 4,840
• Stop Loss: 4,700

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of the support level and consolidation below 4,650 would indicate the end of growth and the formation of a corrective wave.

• Take Profit: 4,520
• Stop Loss: 4,690

Risk factors

Risks to the XAUUSD upside scenario will increase if geopolitical tensions ease and signals of possible de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict appear, which could reduce demand for safe-haven assets. An additional negative factor for gold will be the release of better-than-expected US CPI data, which could cause gold to lose ground.

Summary

Gold remains under the influence of geopolitical risks and US inflation. Today’s XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards the 4,650 USD support level before growth.

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