Gold (XAUUSD) in a range: what could trigger a rally

Gold (XAUUSD) prices reached 4,700 USD, with US inflation and oil prices remaining the key factors. Discover more in our analysis for 13 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices are consolidating, and the range looks wide
• Technically, the 4,717–4,760 area is limiting further recovery
• XAUUSD forecast for 13 May 2026: 4,671

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 4,700 USD per ounce on Wednesday, pressured by stronger-than-expected US inflation data. Increased inflationary pressure reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve policy easing.

US consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, coming in above the forecast of 3.7% and marking the highest reading since May 2023. The main factor behind rising prices remains higher energy costs amid the conflict in the Middle East.

After the data release, the market began to price in a scenario in which the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged until the end of the year. Expectations also strengthened that the US regulator may resume raising rates in April next year.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced new measures to reduce consumer expenses, with a particular focus on petrol and beef prices. The White House administration is increasing economic support for the population amid growing political pressure ahead of the midterm elections in November.

Another factor for the gold market remains the rise in oil prices. Over the past three sessions, oil quotes have strengthened significantly, as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between the US and Iran have yet to yield results.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) remains in a broad sideways range after a sharp decline in late April. Quotes fell to the 4,520-4,530 area, but then quickly recovered and returned above 4,690. This dynamic shows that buyers continue to actively defend the area of local lows, despite pressure from the strong dollar and expectations of more hawkish Federal Reserve policy.

XAUUSD prices are now trading near 4,690, holding close to the middle Bollinger Band. Volatility is gradually declining after the impulsive rally in early May, and the trading range is narrowing. At the same time, quotes remain below local resistance in the 4,717-4,760 area, which is still limiting further recovery.

The technical picture looks neutral with a moderately positive bias. MACD remains in positive territory, although upward momentum is gradually slowing. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards after leaving oversold territory, which may indicate an attempt by buyers to regain the initiative. The nearest resistance levels are located at 4,717 and 4,761, while support lies at 4,671 and 4,627. Consolidation above 4,717 could trigger a move towards the upper boundary of the range.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: neutral with a moderately positive bias
• Key resistance levels: 4,717 and 4,761
• Key support levels: 4,671 and 4,627

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,717 level would indicate the return of buyers and a new upward wave within a broad range. Persistent geopolitical tensions and high oil prices may provide additional support for gold.

• Take Profit: 4,761
• Stop Loss: 4,690

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,671 would signal increased pressure on gold amid strong US inflation and expectations of more hawkish Fed policy. In this case, the decline may accelerate towards 4,627.

• Take Profit: 4,627
• Stop Loss: 4,695

Risk factors

Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a broad sideways range after recovering from the lows seen in late April. Strong US inflation data and expectations of a prolonged period of high interest rates continue to pressure the market. Rising oil prices, geopolitical risks, and demand for safe-haven assets continue to support gold. An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may bring back demand for gold and support movement towards the upper boundary of the range.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are edging lower, while remaining in a broad range. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 13 May 2026, does not rule out a decline towards 4,671.

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