Gold under threat: XAUUSD could plummet due to the USD and geopolitical factors

XAUUSD prices continue to fall and could end the week with a record decline for this month. Quotes currently stand at 4,570 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 15 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold continues to decline
• Negotiations between the leaders of the US and China continue
• XAUUSD forecast for 15 May 2026: 4,520

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 15 May 2026, shows that gold may end the trading week with a decline, breaking psychological levels amid a stronger dollar and renewed geopolitical pressure. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering around 4,570 USD per ounce.

High oil prices continue to drive US inflation to levels that are forcing investors to forget about interest rate cuts. The market currently estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year at almost 40%.

The second day of negotiations between the leaders of the US and China is also playing its part. Although there have been no concrete breakthroughs on Iran yet, the very fact that dialogue has started and that there is agreement on purchases of American products is diverting capital away from safe-haven assets, including gold.

Gold has always been a hedge against inflation, but times are changing, and investors now prefer currencies with high interest rates to the reliable metal. Rising global energy prices are driving inflation higher and forcing investors to reconsider their gold investment plans.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As the pattern’s signal plays out, quotes continue to form a corrective wave. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,520 USD support level could be the downside target.

At the same time, the XAUUSD forecast for 15 May 2026 also suggests another market scenario in which prices could rise towards 4,745 USD without testing the support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,745 and 4,885
• Key support levels: 4,520 and 4,375

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,520 support level would signal that conditions are ripe for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,375
• Stop Loss: 4,550

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,745 level would indicate increased buying pressure and an upward wave.

• Take Profit: 4,885
• Stop Loss: 4,700

Risk factors

Risks to the XAUUSD downside scenario may come from a weaker US dollar, lower US bond yields, as well as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may bring back demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Summary

Gold continues to lose ground amid a stronger USD. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards the 4,520 level.

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