Will Gold (XAUUSD) break free from pressure: the market is extremely tense

The price of Gold (XAUUSD) fell to 4,545 USD. The energy shock is exerting ever stronger pressure on the precious metal. More details are in our analysis for 18 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The price of Gold (XAUUSD) continues to fall and has not stopped yet
• Because of the conflict in the Middle East, inflation in the US remains high, and the probability of a Fed rate cut is zero
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 May 2026: 4,500

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) fell below 4,550 USD per ounce on Monday after dropping almost 4% by the end of last week. The market is under pressure from stronger inflation risks against the backdrop of the energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East. This is increasing expectations of further tightening by the world’s central banks.

An additional negative factor for gold came from the rise in the dollar and US Treasury yields after strong US inflation data. The market has fully ruled out a Fed rate cut this year and is increasingly allowing for the possibility of another rate increase before the end of the year.

At the same time, geopolitical tension remains high. Donald Trump (Donald Trump) stated that Tehran has less and less time left to reach an agreement with Washington. Iranian media, in turn, report that negotiations remain deadlocked because the US is not offering real concessions.

Additional concern in the markets came from attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. The targets included a nuclear power plant in the UAE, which increased fears of further escalation of the conflict in the region.

The forecast for Gold (XAUUSD) is negative.

Technical outlook

Gold (XAUUSD) on the four-hour chart remains under strong pressure after the sharp decline in the second half of last week. Quotes broke through the lower boundary of the recent range and fell into the 4,500–4,510 area, updating local monthly lows. Pressure on gold intensified against the backdrop of the stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields after strong US inflation statistics.

The market is now trying to stabilise around 4,545 after the sharp fall. The price remains below the middle Bollinger Band and is not yet showing signs of a sustainable recovery. Volatility remains elevated, and the latest candles indicate an attempt at a technical rebound after severe oversold conditions rather than a full trend reversal.

The technical picture remains negative. MACD is moving deeper into negative territory, confirming that the downward impulse remains in place. The stochastic is starting to turn upwards from the oversold zone, which may indicate a short-term upward correction. The nearest resistance is located in the 4,575–4,640 area, while support is near 4,500 and 4,475. While Gold remains below 4,640, the risks of a continued decline remain in place.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: Bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,575 and 4,640
• Key support levels: 4,500 and 4,475

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of support at 4,500 with consolidation of quotes below it will increase pressure on gold and confirm that the downward impulse remains in place against the backdrop of the strong dollar and expectations of hawkish Fed policy.

• Take Profit: 4,475
• Stop Loss: 4,535

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,575 will become a signal of a corrective recovery after the market’s severe oversold conditions.

• Take Profit: 4,640
• Stop Loss: 4,540

Risk factors

Pressure on Gold (XAUUSD) remains in place because of higher US Treasury yields, strong US inflation, and expectations of a possible Fed rate increase before the end of the year. An additional risk factor remains high geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

Summary

The price of Gold (XAUUSD) is moving lower and lower. The forecast for Gold (XAUUSD) for today, 18 May 2026, does not rule out a decline towards 4,500.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.