Gold (XAUUSD) has found support in geopolitics: there is a chance of a positive outcome

Gold (XAUUSD) prices held at 4,531 USD. The market is pricing in positive expectations for the Middle East. Discover more in our analysis for 21 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices are attempting to recover while there is a glimmer of positive news in geopolitics
• Inflation concerns worldwide are easing
• XAUUSD forecast for 21 May 2026: 4,555

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering above 4,500 USD per ounce on Thursday after rising by more than 1% the previous day. Growing optimism about a possible agreement between the US and Iran is supporting the market. Such an agreement could reduce inflationary pressure and lower concerns about further rate hikes.

US President Donald Trump said that Washington is in the final stage of negotiations with Tehran, fuelling expectations that the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key routes in global oil trade, may soon return to normal operations.

Amid a possible recovery in oil supplies, energy prices fell sharply, reducing inflation concerns and lowering expectations that global central banks would have to tighten monetary policy further.

At the same time, the published minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed that most officials still allow for the possibility of a rate hike this year if inflation remains above the 2% target.

The market is now divided: some investors expect another Fed rate hike by the end of the year, while others expect the current rates to remain unchanged until the end of 2026.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) remains in a recovery phase after the sharp fall in mid-May. Previously, prices had been steadily declining from the 4,700–4,740 range, reaching local lows around 4,470–4,485. Following a test of this zone, demand returned to the market, allowing gold to enter a corrective rally.

Prices are now hovering around 4,530–4,540 per ounce, remaining slightly above the middle Bollinger Band. Recent sessions have seen sideways consolidation after the rebound from the lows. Volatility is gradually decreasing, while the market is attempting to stabilise after the strong impulsive moves of previous days.

The technical picture looks neutral with a moderately positive bias. MACD remains in negative territory, but selling pressure is gradually weakening. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved into overbought territory, indicating the risk of a local pause or correction after the recovery. The nearest resistance level is located around 4,555–4,595, with support levels at 4,520 and 4,485. As long as gold remains above 4,485, the market retains a chance of continuing its corrective rise.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately upward (corrective recovery)
• Key resistance levels: 4,555 and 4,595
• Key support levels: 4,520 and 4,485

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,555 would confirm a recovery wave amid easing inflation concerns and expectations of de-escalation around Iran. In this case, XAUUSD may continue to move towards 4,595.

• Take Profit: 4,595
• Stop Loss: 4,525

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,520 support level would increase pressure on gold amid hawkish Fed rhetoric and a stronger US dollar. In this case, the decline may continue towards 4,485.

• Take Profit: 4,485
• Stop Loss: 4,545

Risk factors

The gold market remains sensitive to news from the Middle East and Fed rate expectations. Falling oil prices and hopes for renewed negotiations between the US and Iran are supporting XAUUSD. However, Federal Reserve signals about the possibility of another rate hike still limit gold’s upside potential.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose by almost 1% yesterday amid optimism around the Middle East. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 21 May 2026, suggests the recovery wave could extend towards 4,555.

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