XAUUSD is forming a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern

XAUUSD quotes remain under pressure and continue to consolidate amid geopolitical uncertainty, currently standing at 4,524 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 22 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• XAUUSD prices are hovering in the 4,565-4,485 USD range
• US-Iran negotiations remain the key factor for the gold market
• A possible Iranian ban on the export of enriched uranium complicates the negotiation process
• XAUUSD forecast for 22 May 2026: 4,765

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are correcting for the fifth consecutive trading session, hovering in the range between 4,565 USD and 4,485 USD. Market uncertainty remains, as contradictory signals surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran continue to heighten investor concerns about inflation risks and the further outlook for interest rates.

Despite the current stabilisation, XAUUSD quotes remain significantly below the levels recorded at the start of the conflict. Market participants fear that a possible Iranian ban on the export of enriched uranium may complicate the negotiation process between Tehran and Washington even further. For the US, the issue of Iran’s nuclear program remains one of the key factors in the dialogue between the two countries.

The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting also put additional pressure on gold. Most Federal Reserve officials believe that further interest rate hikes may prove necessary if inflation continues to hold above the regulator’s 2% target.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes continue to correct and remain below the EMA-65, indicating continued selling pressure. However, despite the prevailing downward momentum, a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is forming on the H4 chart, which could trigger a trend reversal and a recovery. The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests an upward move after a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel, with the upside target at 4,765 USD.

The technical picture remains favourable for further gains in gold. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards after rebounding from oversold territory and has already formed a bullish crossover, signalling a likely acceleration of the upward move in the near term. A breakout above the upper boundary of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern, with prices consolidating above the 4,565 USD level, would further confirm the upside scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests increased selling pressure if prices break below the pattern’s lower boundary and consolidate below the 4,425 USD level. Such a signal would confirm renewed downward momentum in XAUUSD and open the way to a further decline in prices.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 4,555 and 4,640
• Key support levels: 4,505 and 4,435

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the upper boundary of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and a breakout of the 4,565 USD level would confirm an upward wave.

• Take Profit: 4,765
• Stop Loss: 4,420

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of the reversal pattern’s lower boundary and consolidation below the 4,425 USD level would increase selling pressure and signal continued downward momentum.

• Take Profit: 4,325
• Stop Loss: 4,535

Risk factors

The key risks to the XAUUSD growth scenario remain prices staying below the EMA-65, the lack of a confirmed breakout of the 4,570 USD level, and the possible strengthening of the US dollar amid hawkish Fed rhetoric.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests an upward correction towards 4,765 USD is highly likely, provided that quotes consolidate above the 4,570 USD level, while a breakout below the 4,425 USD support level would cancel the upside scenario and add to downward pressure on gold.

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