A new Fed Chair and peace with Iran: an explosive mix for XAUUSD growth

Against the backdrop of statements from the White House, gold is trying to recover lost ground. The current quote is 4,550 USD. More details are in our analysis for 25 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US and Iran are close to signing an agreement
• The Fed has a new Chair
• Gold is strengthening against the backdrop of hopes for a peace agreement
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 May 2026: 4,650

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for the XAUUSD price for today, 25 May 2026, shows that gold is starting the week with confident growth, reflecting hopes for a peace agreement between the US and Iran, which has pushed the dollar and oil lower. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are around the 4,550 USD per ounce mark.

The weekend brought the strongest de-escalation signal since the start of the conflict. The US and Iran are close to signing an agreement on a 60-day extension of the truce, under which the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. US President Donald Trump stated that the foundations of the peace agreement have largely been agreed.

On Friday, Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new Chair of the Fed. This event took place at a critical moment, when inflation in the US has accelerated to peak levels because of the energy crisis.

Negotiations between the US and Iran on the exact wording of the agreement are continuing, and final approval may require several days. Any headlines about progress or a breakdown in negotiations may trigger an immediate reaction in XAUUSD quotes.

Gold is strengthening against the backdrop of hopes for a peace agreement between the US and Iran. The dollar and oil are falling, while inflation expectations are easing. This is an ideal scenario for growth in the non-yielding metal.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the XAUUSD price formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. As part of the signal’s development, quotes may continue the upward wave. Since the XAUUSD price remains within the boundaries of an upward channel, resistance at 4,650 USD will act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis of XAUUSD also assumes a second market scenario, which includes a correction in price to the 4,475 USD level before growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 4,650 and 4,750
• Key support levels: 4,475 and 4,375

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation of quotes above the 4,650 USD level will confirm the development of an upward wave.

• Take Profit: 4,750
• Stop Loss: 4,610

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of support with consolidation of prices below the 4,475 USD level will intensify pressure from sellers and indicate the continuation of the downward trend.

• Take Profit: 4,375
• Stop Loss: 4,500

Risk factors

The key risks to the XAUUSD growth scenario remain geopolitical tensions and a possible strengthening of the US dollar against the backdrop of hawkish Fed rhetoric.

Summary

Gold is trying to recover lost ground against the backdrop of falling oil prices and attempts by the US and Iran to agree on a truce. Today’s technical analysis of XAUUSD suggests growth in quotes towards the 4,650 USD mark.

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