Gold (XAUUSD) is in limbo: it would like to rise, but the news is holding it back

Gold (XAUUSD) slipped back to 4,534 USD. The market is once again worried about the Middle East. Discover more in our analysis for 26 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) paused its rise due to new developments in the Middle East conflict
• Since the confrontation between the US and Iran began, gold has fallen by 15%
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 May 2026: 4,520 or 4,555

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) fell below 4,534 USD per ounce on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains. The market remains cautious amid ongoing uncertainty around the Middle East conflict and inflation risks.

According to media reports, US forces struck missile sites and vessels in southern Iran that could have been used to deploy naval mines. US Central Command said the operations are aimed at protecting US forces in the region.

Donald Trump noted that talks with Tehran are progressing very well, but warned that additional strikes are possible if diplomacy fails.

Since the conflict began, gold (XAUUSD) has lost nearly 15%, as fears of an energy-driven inflation shock increased expectations that major central banks will keep monetary policy tight.

At the same time, a sharp drop in oil prices over the past week has helped partially ease inflation concerns and reduced expectations of further rate hikes.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) remains in a sideways consolidation phase after a sharp decline from the May highs around 4,740–4,760. Following a momentum-driven drop to the 4,470–4,485 area, the market stabilised and moved into a broad range near 4,520–4,560. Recent sessions show no clear directional move: rallies quickly meet selling pressure, while declines are still capped by local demand.

Prices are currently hovering around 4,535 per ounce, remaining slightly below the middle Bollinger Band. Volatility is gradually decreasing, suggesting the market is moving into an accumulation stage after the strong geopolitical moves of recent weeks. The nearest resistance lies in the 4,555–4,595 area, while support levels are located at 4,520 and 4,485. As long as gold stays within this range, the structure remains neutral, with heightened sensitivity to Middle East headlines and Fed rate expectations.

The technical picture is mixed. MACD is gradually moving into positive territory, signalling an attempt to regain momentum after the previous drop. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator has sharply turned down from overbought territory, indicating fading short-term upside momentum and a risk of renewed pressure on buyers. Consolidation above 4,560 could bring a push towards 4,595–4,630, while a breakout below the 4,520 level would increase the risk of a return to 4,485.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 4,555 and 4,595
• Key support levels: 4,520 and 4,485

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 4,555 USD would confirm a new upward wave amid stabilising external conditions and easing inflation fears.

• Take Profit: 4,595
• Stop Loss: 4,525

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,520 USD support level would add to pressure on buyers and signal the risk of continued decline towards 4,485.

• Take Profit: 4,485
• Stop Loss: 4,550

Risk factors

The key risks to the bullish XAUUSD scenario remain further strengthening of the US dollar, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and new complications around the Middle East conflict. Additional pressure on gold could come from improved risk appetite and lower oil prices, which would reduce inflation concerns.

Summary

Gold prices are falling in response to a localised deterioration in the external environment. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 26 May 2026, suggests quotes could remain within the 4,520–4,555 range.

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